Predicting the Big 12 Football Season For 2024

The Big 12 throne is open for the taking – with four more teams in the fold, who comes away on top?

Nov 25, 2023; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State's Ollie Gordon II (0) celebrates with Oklahoma State's Preston Wilson (74) and Rashod Owens (10) after scoring a touchdown during the second overtime against the Brigham Young Cougars at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sarah Phipps-USA TODAY Sports / Sarah Phipps-USA TODAY Sports

The Big 12's two biggest brands and historic blue bloods depart the conference for the SEC. Though not every year winners, the Big 12 throne sits vacant, just waiting for a hungry contender to rise and take it. With four new programs in the fold, that race to the top gets harder. Incumbent Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and TCU appear to be the longest-standing successors to that throne. But inbound Arizona and Utah have a strong case in Year 1.

The 2024 college football season is on the doorstep. With that in mind, who wins this wide-open league this year?

Projected Big 12 Standings

Oct 28, 2023; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson (5) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Houston Cougars at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports / Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Oddsmakers at national sportsbooks are torn on who the frontrunner this year is. Those trying to predict the final standings are equally split. As it stands ahead of the season, Kansas State and Utah are the favorites, followed by Oklahoma State.

Projecting the Big 12 Conference might feel like throwing darts at a wall. And in some respects, it is. In 2021, both Baylor and Oklahoma State made massive jumps foreseen by few in the preseason; in 2022, that was Kansas State and TCU. We'll get to dart throws later on.

These projected wins come from an average rating from systems across the country, including the FPI, SP+, KFord Ratings, and other established methods.

1. Kansas State Wildcats, 9.2 average wins
2. Utah Utes, 8.9
3. Kansas Jayhawks, 8.6
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys, 8.2
5. Arizona Wildcats, 8.2
6. Iowa State Cyclones, 7.8
7. UCF Knights, 7.7
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders, 7.6
9. TCU Horned Frogs, 7.3
10. West Virginia Mountaineers, 6.8
11. Cincinnati Bearcats, 5.8
12. Colorado Buffaloes, 5.2
13. Baylor Bears, 5.0
14. BYU Cougars, 4.7
15. Arizona State, 3.9
16. Houston Cougars, 3.7

The Wild, Wild West

Oklahoma State football head coach Mike Gundy walks of the field following the Big 12 Football Championship game between the Oklahoma State University Cowboys and the Texas Longhorns at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

The above projections are determinant on a lot of things, most prominently strength of schedule. Kansas avoids Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona, and UCF. Conversely, West Virginia plays those teams except for Utah. Just three power points separate the top-rated team, Kansas State, from the fifth-rated team, Kansas. Just seven points separate first from ninth (UCF).

In short, this conference is separated on razor-thin margins. That could result in must-watch TV each and every week.

Looking at consistency, Oklahoma State takes the cake. Mike Gundy has twice as many 10+ win seasons (12) as he does 5+ loss seasons (6) since 2008. The Pokes return the second-most roster production in the country (85%), only behind Iowa State (86%).

After years of playing second fiddle to arch-rival Oklahoma and Texas, it's now or never for Oklahoma State.

Who Peaks At The Right Time?

Sep 16, 2023; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights running back RJ Harvey (7) scores a touchdown against the Villanova Wildcats during the second half at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

Each year, the eventual Big 12 champion peaks at the right time. Last year, Oklahoma State turned things around and rattled off seven wins in eight weeks to reach Arlington. The year prior, Kansas State hit its stride just in time to take down undefeated TCU.

Take Kansas' end-of-season schedule, for example. Its four final games of the year are against Iowa State, at BYU, Colorado, and at Baylor – three of the bottom five Big 12 teams and Iowa State at Arrowhead. Compare that to Iowa State, who ends with Texas Tech, Kansas, Cincinnati, Utah, and Kansas State.

Also look for UCF, who added a bunch of talent in the transfer portal. Should that group take time to gel, the Knights could be firing on all cylinders entering December.

Big 12 Championship Predictions

Nov 12, 2022; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Cameron Rising (7) warms up prior to a game against the Stanford Cardinal at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

For years, Oklahoma State just hasn't been able to get over the hill. Last year, the Pokes made Arlington, but fell to Texas, 49-21. In 2021, Oklahoma State came up literal inches short of the title against Baylor. Gundy has produced plenty of successful teams in Stillwater, but no conference champions since the championship game was reinstated (the Pokes did win in the league title in 2011).

All offseason, Utah fans have clashed with incumbent Big 12 fans. Ute faithful believe their team runs shop in the conference this season. A year removed from Utah's healthy roster has resulted in some skepticism. Understandably so, but foolish in nature.

Oklahoma State and Utah have the two best coaches in the Big 12, hands down. They both have a ton of continuity and the roster talent is plenty to win 10+ games apiece. These two teams are my choices to reach Arlington.

But ultimately, this is finally the year Mike Gundy gets it done – especially since his career may have numbered years attached to it. And with that title comes a first-round bye in the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

Big 12 Championship Prediction: Oklahoma State OVER Utah

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