Sugar Bowl: #6 Baylor vs. #8 Ole Miss Preview, Prediction

Dave Aranda and Big 12 Champion Baylor take on Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels in the Sugar Bowl– final New Year's Six game of the 2021-22 season.

© Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

It may have been by an inch, but Baylor (11-2) won the Big 12 Championship just a year after finishing 2-7. The turnaround was one of the best in the nation, spearheaded by coach Dave Aranda. They take on one of college football's biggest personalities in Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss (10-2).

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral was a strong contender for the Heisman Trophy, being mostly eliminated from contention in November. He finished the 2021 regular season with 31 total touchdowns versus only four interceptions.

However, he faces a stiff Baylor defense that was the centerpiece of the Bears team. They finished the 2021 regular season inside the top 25 in points per drive allowed (1.74, 23rd). They're led by First Team All American safety Jalen Pitre, who has not opted out of this game despite expecting to depart for the NFL after this game.

Ole Miss star Matt Corral celebrates a touchdown against Auburn in October / © John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

This game features some of the most evenly-matched teams, with many oddsmakers pinning this game as dead even (listed as PK, or pick 'em). It's a true strength-versus-strength showcase between Ole Miss' offense and Baylor's defense.

These teams aren't all one-sided, though: Ole Miss' defense– while not elite by any means– was capable of slowing down teams in some situations. Their points per drive allowed, 2.13, was 62nd nationally.

First Team All American safety Jalen Pitre (center, No. 8) celebrates an interception against Texas State in September / © Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor has some quarterback uncertainty for this game, though starter Gerry Bohanan is expected to play in this game after missing the Big 12 Championship game with an injury. His backup, Blake Shapen, was terrific in the title game, completing over 82% of his passes (23-of-28) for three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Baylor also rosters the Big 12's second-leading rusher in Abram Smith. Their offense is potent enough to challenge Ole Miss on the scoreboard, though not as explosive.

The pick: Baylor

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