TCU At Kansas Odds, Betting Prediction For College Football Week 5

TCU is a +2 underdog against Kansas this weekend, a game played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

Sep 14, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Jack Bech (18) signals first down after a catch during the fourth quarter against the UCF Knights at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-2, 0-1) come off a crushing defeat to rival SMU to play the Kansas Jayhawks (1-3, 0-1) this weekend. According to sportsbook odds posted as of Friday morning, TCU is a +2 road underdog and the game has an over/under listed at 59 points.

Adjusted for the vigorish (think of it as a sportsbook tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 47%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 2-2 against the spread, not coming anywhere near last week's number of -2.5. The over is also 3-1, with 108 points being plenty to cover a closing number of 58 against UCF.

TCU At Kansas Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Sep 14, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass during the first quarter against the UCF Knights at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

Odds moved away from TCU throughout the week after the Frogs opened as a slim +1 road underdog. While that number moved as far as 1.5 points away, the actual impacts of that number are quite slim – moving from +1 to +2 implies a 5% shift in win probability. A shift from +2 to +3 implies a 17% win probability in itself.

This has been the year of the underdog when it comes to football betting, in both college and the NFL. While what +28.5 Northern Illinois did at No. 5 Notre Dame is inconsequential to this one entirely, it's worth noting that markets are slower to react to enormous changes to teams and their ratings move slowly.

Such is the case with 1-3 Kansas. The Jayhawks still rank 35th in ESPN's FPI, above 3-1 Nebraska, 4-0 BYU, and ranked Illinois. Long tested Jeff Sagarin's numbers pin KU 33rd, above 3-1 Washington, 4-0 Indiana, and 4-0 Pittsburgh. At this point of the season, preseason priors (largely built off last season's number, adjusted for moves) weigh heavily on current pricing of teams.

And that pricing just hasn't caught up to Kansas. Jalon Daniels has thrown seven interceptions against four touchdowns and has added little by way of rushing. The team has regressed offensively without offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki (Penn State). More aggressive moves on their power rating, which is what aids in setting the betting line, is needed.

On a neutral field, my more aggressively-adjusted numbers slightly favor TCU. Since Kansas is playing at Arrowhead Stadium, a neutral venue by definition, I don't weight homefield advantage nearly as much. Kansas City is an easy flight from Dallas-Fort Worth and TCU should be well-represented. KU still has to commute 60 miles to the venue. Perhaps the Jayhawks get a slight half-point edge for being closer, but this is a new venue for them, too.

So, before the market adjusts on a mistake-prone Kansas offense, I'm going to continue fading them.

• The pick: TCU moneyline, +105 or better

TCU At Kansas Odds: Pick Against The Total

Kansas senior cornerback Cobee Bryant (2) waits for the next play during Friday's Spring Preview at Rock Chalk Park. / Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

TCU has played in plenty of high scoring games this year, resulting in a 3-1 record to the over so far. Last week, despite playing what was (up until that point) a lethargic offense in SMU, the Frogs and Mustangs combined for 108 points in the penultimate Battle for the Iron Skillet.

Kansas fields a pretty stout defense, especially in its secondary. Josh Hoover and the TCU passing attack will face its toughest test yet Saturday. The combination of Cobee Bryant and Mello Doston means Hoover will have to look to options 3 and 4 more often.

But, given the way TCU's defense has played against Power Conference competition, it's a tough proposition to bet under the key figure of 59 (the most frequently-occuring total in college football the last five years). This is a full stay away for me.

• The pick: No bet

2024 record: 2-3

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