TCU At SMU Odds, Betting Prediction For College Football Week 5

TCU visits rival SMU as a -3 road favorite in the penultimate Battle for the Iron Skillet.

Sep 14, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver JP Richardson (7) indicates he was this close to breaking a tackle during the first quarter against the UCF Knights at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) visit the cross-metro arch rival SMU Mustangs (2-1). TCU is a -3 road favorite and sportsbooks make the over/under 58 points. TCU initially opened up a -2.5 favorite, but the market moved that number to a full field goal – far from an insignificant half-point move (we'll get into why below).

Adjusted for the vigorish (think of it as a sportsbook tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 56.8%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 2-1 against the spread, barely covering the closing number last week (+2.5). The over is also 2-1, with 65 points being enough to cover a closing number of 61.5 against UCF.

TCU At SMU Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Aug 30, 2024; Stanford, California, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Jack Bech (18) scores a touchdown during the second half against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

What the TCU at SMU Spread Means

When a point spread moves to or off -3 (or +3), that's a notable and significant move – far more than, say, 5.5 to 5. In recent history, 17% of college football games end squarely with a three-point differential. That means a move from -2.5 to -3 represents a 17% shift in win probability, both for the team and for your betting action.

It takes respected and "sharp" (professional) action to move a line on or off that key betting figure. Other key figures include 7 (14%) and 10 (9%).

TCU moving beyond -2.5 means influential bettors favor TCU in this game and don't favor SMU enough to buy +3 (and, thus, moving the line back to +2.5).

Last week, we saw the same action with TCU-UCF. In a stroke of bad luck, taking the -2.5 with UCF.

How I'm Betting TCU at SMU

SMU announced a change at quarterback before its bye week, a surprise to some. Preston Stone suffered a serious leg injury late last season and appeared to not be fully healthy in his first couple games, resulting in head coach Rhett Lashlee going to Kevin Jennings instead. Jennings is a subpar passer with a more mobile upside. However, under his direction, the SMU offense sputters, scoring just 21 points per contest (versus 39.4 under Stone).

The Mustangs offense has been arrhythmic and inefficient, ranking 99th in yards per play (4.6) despite running 2.47 plays per minute (32nd-fastest).

The TCU defense has yet to put a full game together – it allowed 27 and 35 to FBS opponents – but it is a step up in talent from BYU and Nevada, both teams who held SMU under 120 rushing yards and 30 points.

TCU's offense is fully capable of moving the ball against SMU's defense, one that's seen a serious dropoff since losing its stud defensive front. BYU and Nevada, two of the least efficient passing offenses in the FBS, managed 200 and 298 yards through the air, respectively.

All that to say, TCU should win this game handily.

• The pick: TCU -3 (-110) or better

TCU At SMU Odds: Pick Against The Total

Sep 14, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs cornerback JaTravis Broughton (13) lines up against UCF Knights wide receiver Xavier Townsend (3) during the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

Of the last 15 Iron Skillet matchups, the Over hit in 11 of them. However, last year's total soared well under the closing 62.5 (just 51 points). When assessing totals, I like to target teams who I don't believe can upkeep their end of scoring.

In this case, nothing SMU has showed offensively gives much confidence that they will pull their load in scoring to bet over 58 points. There is a chance – a likely one, even – that SMU took the bye week to retool the offense to better fit Jennings' skillset, rather than jamming him in one that fits Stone's (and previously Shane Buchelle's). Should they do that, and should the offense really click, then it may be another high-scoring affair between TCU and SMU.

But, I'm not betting on that to happen overnight.

• The pick: Under 58 points

2024 betting record: 2-1

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