TCU At Stanford Odds, Betting Prediction For College Football Week 1

The TCU Horned Frogs are -9.5 road favorites over their Week 1 opponent, the Stanford Cardinal.

Nov 18, 2023; Stanford, California, USA; Stanford Cardinal quarterback Ashton Daniels (14) looks to throw a pass against the California Golden Bears during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports / Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

The TCU Horned Frogs travel to face the Stanford Cardinal in their 2024 college football opener Friday night. Sportsbooks line TCU as a -9.5 favorite on the road and Stanford a +260 moneyline home underdog. The point total for this game sits at 59.5 points as of Thursday afternoon.

Adjusted for the vigorish (think of it as a sportsbook tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 73.4%. A bitterly disappointing 2023 season saw TCU start the year losing at home to Colorado as -20.5 favorite and twice more as a -14 favorite (Iowa State) and -6.5 favorite (Iowa State). Ultimately, the Horned Frogs finished 5-7 in both straight up record and against the point spread.

With plenty of new on tap for TCU this year, might they avoid the same fate as 2023?

TCU At Stanford Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Laying nearly double digits on the road is one of my least favorite things to do in college football betting. Disruption to daily life while traveling to the West Coast has an impact on college-aged athletes more than professionals. In his coaching career, Sonny Dykes is 13-17-2 as a road favorite (43.3%) and went 1-1 ATS in such games last year.

Stanford fields an offense with much more firepower than many realize. You can read my full Stanford opponent preview here. With such a high point toal (nearing 60 points), I won't be laying -9.5 here.

I still believe TCU wins this game. They're the more complete team with a serious upgrade in defensive scheme inbound with Andy Avalos. But defensive schemes take time to root and for each player to fully grasp. A new defensive scheme against a team with a talented and mobile QB and serious deep threat at receiver?

It's bad practice to take numbers like +2.5, +6.5, and +9.5 since they butt up on key figures +3, +7, and +10. If a +10 shows itself, that's the number I'm buying. But given the trend of movement around +10 this week, it's unlikely to appear before kickoff.

• The pick: Stanford +9.5 (-110)

TCU At Stanford Odds: Pick Against The Total

59.5 points is quite a bit for a team supposedly upgrading defensively. When evaluating over/unders, I like to bet under when one team can't uphold its end of the bargain. After all, 60 points is a lot for one single team to make up by themselves.

But what kind of dedication to improving the run games does TCU bring forward this year? QB Josh Hoover averaged 46 passing attempts in his starts last season – a negative game script for betting unders. On the other side, Stanford attempted passes on 54% of its snaps last year, 29th-most in the FBS. Without a real upgrade to the run game this offseason, we can expect a similar approach this year.

Two pass-happy teams against at least one unknown commodity on defense results in a long and potentially high-scoring game. Ultimately, I'm going to pass on the over/under total at 59.5 points.

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