TCU At Utah Odds, Betting Prediction For College Football Week 8

TCU comes off a bye week to face an injured and struggling Utah . However, they tackle the Utes on the road in one of college football's most difficult environments.

Sep 14, 2024; Logan, Utah, USA; Utah Utes defensive tackle Junior Tafuna (58) celebrates with teammates after defeating the Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

In Week 8, the TCU Horned Frogs (3-3, 1-2 Big 12) hit the road off a bye week to face the Utah Utes (4-2, 1-2). Utah brings a two-game losing streak to the contest and some bad news: starting quarterback Cameron Rising will again miss the season, his second straight year missed to injury. In response to the injury, TCU dropped from a +7 underdog to +4.5. The over/under sits at 49.5 points as of Thursday.

Adjusted for the vigorish (think of it as a sportsbook tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 37.3%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 3-3 against the spread, failing to cover a -17 spread and losing to Houston outright, 30-19, last time out. The over is also 4-2, with 49 points barely falling short of a 52-point total at closing (49.5 at open).

TCU At Utah Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Sep 28, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Isaac Wilson (11) scrambles against the Arizona Wildcats during the second quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Appropriately pricing individual players in a market is a difficult task. According to the betting market, QB Cam Rising was worth between 2-3 points on the spread, indicated by the movement from +7 to +4.5 (+4 in some spots, opened +6.5 in others). The question begs, is Rising worth that many points?

As a seventh-year former star QB, the initial answer might be, well duh. But let's dig a little deeper. With Rising in the lineup, Utah played the 71st-ranked defense in points per drive (Baylor) and the 65th-ranked defense (Arizona State). In those games, Utah scored 23 and 19 points, respectively. In games without Rising–led by QB Isaac Wilson, brother of NFL QB Zach–Utah played the 73rd-ranked defense (Oklahoma State) and 80th-ranked defense (Arizona) and scored 22 and 10, respectively.

In those four games, Utah went 1-3 against the final spread; 1-1 with Wilson and 0-2 with Rising. Against Arizona State, Rising threw three interceptions. So I'm inclined to say this Utah team, at least in terms of market power, is about the same with or without Rising.

Removing home field advantage–a serious advantage for Utah with Rice-Eccles Stadium at night being one of the best home environments in college football–the market suggests Utah is about 1.5-2 points better than TCU (adjusting 2.5-3 points for that HFA). That same TCU team that comes in on a 1-3 skid allowing 66 to SMU, a 35-point comeback to UCF, and losing outright to Houston (albeit, under a new and better QB).

I don't buy it. Though TCU comes in off a bye week, I assess Utah as the better team. I believe the market has well overreacted to Rising being declared out for the season despite evidence that he's not worth a whole ton to Utah's final outcome.

• The pick: Utah -4

TCU At Utah Odds: Pick Against The Total

Sep 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver JP Richardson (7) receives a punt and runs it bak for a touchdown against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Something has to give Saturday night. TCU fields a top-40 offense nationally while Utah fields a top-30 defense. We've seen evidence both of TCU not being able to score on better stop units (19 against Houston) and Utah giving up points to better offenses (27 to Arizona State). So, which one gives?

When betting totals, it's often advantageous to take unders when one side of the ball can't upkeep its fair share of scoring. I present to you, the 99th-ranked Utah offense. But what about when both sides might not keep up scoring? I also present to you, the 28th-ranked Utah defense and a TCU offense capable of being slowed and seriously mistake-prone.

This total was already bet down from its opening mark of 51.5 points, but I don't think far enough. The loser of this game likely doesn't hit 21 points. So, does the winner hit 29? 30?

I don't see it.

• The pick: Under 49.5 points

2024 record: 4-3

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