TCU Football Bye Week Assessment: Where From Here?

At 3-3 on the season, the TCU Horned Frogs have to make the most of the first rest week to push back into the Big 12 conversation.

Sep 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes watches play against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs have a problem. After six games, they're 3-3 with three inexcusable losses. The first came after a blown 31-13 lead and a 99.3% win expectancy, per ESPN. The second featured a struggling rival offense hanging 66 on them. And the third–the worst of all–came to a lifeless Houston that had yet to score a single point on a Big 12 foe.

This 3-3 is far more frustrating than if TCU fell in competitive fashion to UCF, SMU, and, say, in a shootout to either Kansas or Stanford. But not this.

Boos rained down on TCU in its embarrassing 30-19 loss to Houston. Deservedly so – TCU entered halftime down 24-6 against a team with no Power Conference wins on its resume and, before the night, eight quarters failing to score on a Big 12 opponent. The Horned Frogs were outplayed and, more concerning, out-coached.

Starts From The Top-Down

Nov 11, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes during the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Texas Longhorns at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

For the past one-and-a-half seasons, discourse around the Horned Frogs typically began with, "I like Sonny Dykes, but..." or, "I think Dykes is a good coach, but..."

The tough truth is, Dykes has not proved his chops as a great coach. Not a good coach. Barely an average one. After winning his first 12 games at TCU, Dykes is 9-12, 7-12 if you remove FCS competition. Five times in the last two years, Dykes dropped games TCU was favored in – four times when by a touchdown or more. Most of his hires have fallen flat, most notably Joe Gillespie.

Since losing to Kansas State in the 2022 Big 12 Championship Game, TCU hasn't beaten a Power Conference team with a winning record.

Sonny Dykes is 57-66 against FBS competition as a head coach without Garrett Riley as his OC.

He’s 5-11 in his last 16 games vs. Power 4 teams. pic.twitter.com/FWE7QMM6Ch

— Gamblin' Gauchos 🎙️ (@GamblinGauchos) October 5, 2024

Recruiting, in the aggregate, is up (54th in 2021 to 21st in 2023). However, six members of the 2023 class are no longer on the roster (including two of the top three recruits, both four-stars) and four of the top six from the 2022 class are gone. The new age of NIL and virtually ungoverned transfers is partly to blame, but top recruits in each class should want to stay and play for the coach that recruited them. That's not the case here.

Unfortunately, the miraculous 2022 season will keep Dykes employed long past time to move forward. That time isn't now, after all the grass isn't always greener, but the framing of the current coaching staff needs changing.

Assessing The Defense -- TCU Is A Half-Team

Oct 4, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback Zeon Chriss (2) fumbles the ball as he is tackled by TCU Horned Frogs safety Jaise Oliver (25) and linebacker Namdi Obiazor (4) in the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos hasn't come out of the gate swinging. Typically, it takes two years for new defensive systems to take root–look no further than Brent Venables at Oklahoma–but the defense has been out-schemed almost every week. The stop unit has done everything but and ranks 111th in points per drive surrendered.

TCU ranks in the bottom fifth of the nation in non-explosive play defense; in other words, how much production comes from chunk yards versus on a down-to-down basis? TCU just hasn't been able to stop teams from getting 5, 6, or 7 yards at a time.

That's led to an average 3rd down & 6.63 yards faced, outside the top 100 nationally. As a result, the Horned Frogs have allowed a ghastly 50% conversion rate on third and fourth downs. The defense has to figure out how to get more stops on third down.

Finally, the defense hasn't created any havoc (turnovers, sacks, tackles for loss, etc.). That aspect of the game also ranks outside the top 100 nationally.

A rest week is a great time to adjust and fix these issues. But the issues must be fixed.

Assessing The Offense -- It's Not All Bad!

Sep 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Josh Hoover has emerged into a great stat-compiler at quarterback, far from a slight at the sophomore. His 239 attempts is the second-most (behind Syracuse's Kyle McCord) and 16 touchdowns, third. Hoover is one of the best intermediate passers in the country, per Pro Football Focus' grades, a valuable asset not found in most QBs.

Deep passing, though, hasn't been there. On throws 20+ yards downfield, Hoover has connected with fewer than half of his 20 attempts and thrown three interceptions (versus four touchdowns). That comprises just 8.4% of his total attempts, the seventh-lowest rate in the nation.

Of course, props have to be given to the receiving corps. Jack Bech, Savion Williams, and JP Richardson have been outstanding; Bech leads the team with seven touchdowns. Boise State transfer Eric McAllister scored in three straight games until failing to see a target in 24 snaps against Houston.

Cam Cook has emerged as the featured back to mixed results. 3.9 yards per attempt is discouraging, leading to TCU's high pass rate this year. Unfortunately, he's no Emani Bailey or Kendre Miller.

The other biggest need for improvement comes along the offensive line. The unit hasn't garnered much of a push in the run game and gaps in the pass protection has forced 14 combined batted balls and throwaways from Hoover.

Where Does TCU Go From Here?

Sep 14, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Jack Bech (18) runs with the ball during the second quarter against the UCF Knights at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

Weeks 1-6 were supposed to be the easier stretch of the year. Coming off bye, TCU heads to Utah – one of the best defenses in the country and a top contender in the Big 12 with an imposing home environment. 5-1 Texas Tech is up next, followed by a road date at rival Baylor, and then back home against a struggling Oklahoma State.

The year ends with a tricky duo of Arizona and at Cincinnati.

The Frogs would really like to have both the UCF and Houston games back. Unfortunately, the ink's dried on those games.

TCU projects to be an underdog in four remaining games and no more than a field goal favorite in the others. In order to be bowl-eligible, TCU has to finish the year no worse than 3-3. They have to, quite literally, beat the odds.

Dykes will get another crack at this team in 2025. He'll get a chance to re-tool the staff, even if TCU finishes below .500 this season. But, after that, he's on rental, regardless of his contract expiration in 2028.

Unfortunately, the Frogs are staring down another 5-7 season with lots of work to do and headed in the wrong direction. To the booing fans Friday, the frustration is well deserved.

• Projected finish: 6-6

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