TCU Football: What To Expect This Season

The Sonny Dykes era is a week away from officially kicking off.

Photo: © Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

After 21 years under the leadership of a defensive coach in Gary Patterson, a new, offensive-minded approach under Sonny Dykes will lead TCU into the 2022 season on Friday, September 2, at Colorado.

Colorado is not a great football team, but it is a Power 5 program and an ideal season-opener for a TCU team under construction.

The Buffaloes have not won more than five games since 2016, when the team went 10-4 and claimed a Pac-12 South title. TCU has been slightly more impressive over a similar time frame. The Horned Frogs last tallied double-digit wins (11) in 2017 and amassed 23 wins over the past four seasons.

T-minus 3 weeks 🤫#GoFrogs #DFWBig12Team pic.twitter.com/XLOOv4p8WP

— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) August 12, 2022

Beating Colorado would be the preferred start for this next chapter. Opening the season 1-0 makes it easier to reach bowl eligibility. If the Frogs win six or seven games and perhaps pull off an upset along the way, then the 2022 season should be deemed a success.

A loss at Colorado does not ruin everything, though. It just makes things a little more complicated.

The Big 12 has two distinct tiers entering this season. The top tier includes Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas. These teams have all gotten some conference champion contender love during the summer.

This leaves Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia to fight it out for spots 6-10.

Of course, a champion can emerge from anywhere in the pre-season conference standings and make these predictions look foolish. Case in point, Baylor’s rise from No. 8 in the 2021 preseason poll to conference champion.

This Horned Frogs team is not a conference title contender right now. But “winning” the second tier of the Big 12 and going at least 2-1 in non-conference games keeps TCU on track. Beating a team from the conference contender list while achieving these other things, would simply increase future expectations.

Incremental improvements on offense and defense will fuel those hopes.

Dykes can transform offenses. He helped TCU jump from the No. 9 to the No. 4 scoring offense in the Big 12 during the 2017 season as an offensive analyst. Then, Dykes took over at SMU. The Mustangs ranked seventh, 15th, and 10th nationally in scoring offense from 2019 to 2021.

The Horned Frogs have offensive weapons, which means Dykes could work some magic in short order.

The running game should remain a strength despite the loss of leading rusher Zach Evans. Junior running back Kendre Miller will lead the charge after carrying the ball 83 times for 623 yards in 2021. The depth behind Miller, including Emari Demercado and Florida State transfer Corey Wren, might give the passing attack time to find a groove.

First Team All-Big 12 wide receiver Quentin Johnston led TCU with 634 receiving yards and six touchdown receptions over nine games last year. Seniors Taye Barber and Derius Davis each accounted for over 500 receiving yards. All three have speed that spread the field and make the quarterback’s job much easier.

Quentin Johnston / © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It’s unclear at the moment who will throw Johnston and the other receivers the ball. It could be the three-year starter Max Duggan or redshirt freshman Chandler Morris.

Debates continue about who should start and why, but one thing is clear - the starter must have better protection. TCU’s offensive line allowed 28 sacks last season.

If the offensive line can shore up the protection issues, the offense might pick up steam.

This means the defense needs to regain its usually stiff form. The Horned Frogs gave up 34.9 points per game last season, only better than Kansas in the conference rankings. It was TCU’s worst scoring defense performance since joining the Big 12 in 2012.

The Horned Frogs racked up just 15 sacks with defensive linemen Ochaun Mathis and Dylan Horton, each recording a team-high four sacks. With Mathis now at Nebraska, Horton must take on a bigger role and get more help from teammates.

Cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, a two-time First-Team All-Big 12 selection, remains a nightmare for opposing teams. He consistently took away the best receiver yet led the Horned Frogs with seven pass break ups and two interceptions.

Linebacker Dee Winters, TCU’s leading tackler, should grow under new Defensive Coordinator Joe Gillespie. Gillespie turned Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins into a first-round NFL draft pick in 2020 and earned National Linebackers Coach of the Year honors from FootballScoop.

Dee Winters tackles Oklahoma State's Spencer Sanders in 2021 :: © SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

TCU’s defense will be inconsistent as fresh faces take on starting roles. But that fits with the theme for 2022.

This season is all about adjustments. Growing pains are inevitable as players learn a new system. Dykes will likely do things in games that seem odd to individuals who have not watched hours of film or spent days working on a specific play in practice.

Still, a little patience, persistence, commitment, and luck can get TCU back in a bowl game.

That’s a solid launching pad for a new era. 

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