TCU Football: Resetting the Expectations

TCU has met or exceeded every preseason expectation. So what comes next?

© Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

If a 6-0 record, No. 8 ranking, and first place in the Big 12 Conference midway through the 2022 season was on your TCU football bingo card, give yourself a pat on the back.

No one could have predicted this historic start. With the 43-40 double overtime win against No. 8 Oklahoma State, TCU officially met preseason expectations.

Reach six wins and bowl eligibility while showing improvements on offense and defense under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes?

Check.

And taking down a program-record three ranked opponents in consecutive weeks?

A very nice bonus.

Beating brand names like Oklahoma (then No. 18) and Oklahoma State adds to that achievement. Historically, Kansas’ name may not carry the same weight, but beating the No. 19 team on the road is not easy.

TCU will face another top-20 test when No. 17 Kansas State visits Fort Worth on Saturday. Expecting a fourth-straight win against a top-20 opponent seems like too much.

Mistakes and slip ups happen in college football. This past weekend is a perfect example as No. 3 Alabama, No. 7 USC, No. 8 Oklahoma State, and No. 10 Penn State all lost.

Fair or not, the Horned Frogs face more pressure after each win. A College Football Playoff appearance might sound possible now, especially given the shake ups in the top 10, but one or two losses could abruptly end that dream.

Selection Sunday in December is a long way off.

TCU’s last 6-0 start came in 2017 when Dykes was the offensive analyst. Dykes seems like the common thread or he’s at least a contributing factor. This time around offensive coordinator Garrett Riley may deserve more credit.

The Horned Frogs offense leads the Big 12 in scoring (45.8 points per game) and total yards (526.7). Quarterback Max Duggan is the conference’s most efficient passer. He has completed 69.46% of passes (116-of-167) for 1591 yards, one interception, and 16 touchdowns. Duggan threw 16 touchdowns in 10 games last season.

Duggan remains a running threat, but the pocket-collapsing induced scrambles are less common. He looks much more comfortable behind an improved offensive line.

Wide receiver Quentin Johnston has also benefitted from a more open offensive attack. Johnston has two touchdowns and a team-best 500 receiving yards on 34 catches. Another 134 yards and four touchdowns will push Johnston pass his 2021 numbers.

Add in running back Kendre Miller toting the ball 15 times per game for 96 yards and TCU’s multi-pronged offense keeps opposing defenses on edge.

TCU’s scoring defense ranks in the top half of the conference at 26.5 points per game. Linebacker Johnny Hodges leads the defense with 39 tackles and linebacker Dee Winters keys the backfield attack with 4.5 sacks and 7 total tackles for loss.

The passing defense is 103rd nationally (264 yards per game). While that’s not the worst in the Big 12, it leaves the Horned Frogs vulnerable to momentum-shifting plays.

Still, TCU has proven it can compete at a very high level.

During the Oklahoma State postgame press conference, a reporter asked Duggan what qualifying for a bowl game meant after not participating in one during the three previous seasons.

Duggan’s response showed the focus had already shifted.

“You don’t want to be content right now, saying you’re 6-0,” he said. “We haven’t done anything yet.”

A winning season and playing in a respected bowl game feel like reasonable expectations after watching the first six games. Perhaps the Horned Frogs can earn an Alamo Bowl invitation.

Reaching the Big 12 title game, a New Year’s Six Bowl, like the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, or the College Football Playoffs (CFP) would be icing on the cake, so to speak. A CFP appearance would require a Big 12 title, an undefeated regular season (or maybe one loss), and losses from specific teams around the country.

That’s a tall order for a team under new management.

The Horned Frogs have turned a corner under Dykes. An upward trend should continue, but it will include bumps, bruises, and probably some losses.

Sit back and just enjoy the ride. 

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