TCU Football Week 12 Opponent Preview: Baylor Bears

TCU hosts arch-rival Baylor with just two weeks left in the regular season and bowl eligibility on the line.

The TCU Horned Frogs (4-6, 2-5 Big 12) have two games remaining on their 2023 schedule and are just one loss away from missing out on the postseason. While this week's opponent appears to be a reprieve in the win/loss column, they must beat the rival Baylor Bears (3-7, 2-5) to have a fighting chance in Week 13. This series has been tightly contested lately, meaning Sonny Dykes & Co. can't fall asleep at the wheel.

Baylor at TCU kicks off Saturday, Nov. 18, at 2:30 p.m. CT. Watching the game may prove difficult to some, as it will be broadcast on the ESPN+ streaming service. However, the game will also be freely broadcast on the radio at 820 AM WBAP.

Oct 14, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Savion Williams (3) and offensive lineman Andrew Coker (74) and offensive lineman Brandon Coleman (77) and wide receiver Jaylon Robinson (13) celebrates after Williams scores a touchdown against the Brigham Young Cougars during the game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor vs. TCU Series History

You have to go back to 2017 to find the last time more than 10 points separated these teams. In fact, four of the last five meetings finished within one score. This is a true throw-out-the-records rivalry, as TCU upset No. 5 Baylor in 2021 and Baylor nearly upset No. 2 TCU last season. The rivalry was put on hold between 1995-2006 when TCU and Baylor joined different conferences.

The Frogs lead the all-time series 58-53-7. Only four other rivalries with 100+ games played are as tightly contested, with no real periods of true "dominance." The longest win streak in the rivalry is eight games by either side, although TCU holds a 10-4 advantage since picking the rivalry back up in 2006.

This historic rivalry really began back in 1901, where the Frogs and Bears played 22 (!!!) times in their first 10 seasons, although the first meeting was in 1899. All editions took place in Waco – since both schools originally operated in Waco – before TCU moved to Fort Worth in 1910.

Perhaps the most notable installment in the rivalry came in 2014. TCU and Baylor squared off as ranked opponents for the first time ever, with Baylor ranking fifth and TCU ninth. The Frogs collapsed in the fourth quarter, losing 61-58 despite holding a 58-37 lead.

Oct 11, 2014; Waco, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Trevone Boykin (2) calls a play during the game against the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports / HISTORICAL ARCHIVE, MINIMUM USAGE FEE APPLIES;

Baylor Players To Note

The Bears came into the 2023 season with plenty of talent and decent expectations. But those players with expectations – namely running back Richard Reese (971 yards, 14 TDs in 2022) – have fallen well short. Reese now sits third in carries behind Oklahoma State transfer Dominic Richardson (428 yards, 0 TDs) and Dawson Pendergrass (305 yards, 5 TDs).

Quarterback Blake Shapen missed time early in the season with an injury, but is coming off his best game of the season against Kansas State. Shapen has thrown 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions; while not quite the dynamic playmaker we saw in 2021 and 2022, he's taking much better care of the football than in years past. His favorite target is Monaray Baldwin (586 yards, 3 TDs), although tight end Drake Dabney leads the team in touchdowns (5).

Cornerback Caden Jenkins is the team's most prolific defender, hauling in three interceptions and 25 tackles. Linebacker Matt Jones also has impressive do-it-all numbers, logging 48 tackles, nine pressures on the QB, a pair of sacks, and two pass breakups. Safety Devyn Bobby leads the Bears with 56 tackles.

Nov 4, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears cornerback Caden Jenkins (19) makes an interception against the Houston Cougars during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports / © Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Sizing Up The Bears

Two things are likely true in this game: Baylor is a team TCU should beat, but this is a tightly-contested rivalry, and the Bears will knock off the Frogs should the effort not be there. Although Dave Aranda and his team have little left to play for (besides job security for Aranda), they have an opportunity to eliminate their rival from bowl contention on the road, and that's motivation enough.

Defensively, Baylor is in a free fall from their top-five unit from 2021 that won the Big 12 Championship. Though they brought back a familiar face from that unit, defensive coordinator Matt Powledge, the Bears lack the talent on the stop unit, leading them to bottom-15 scoring numbers in the entire country. Baylor is exceedingly beatable both through the air and on the ground, although they're slightly worse against the run game than the pass game.

Offensively, Shapen is improving since coming back from injury. However, Baylor has been extremely inefficient on the ground despite having talent in the backfield. The offensive line only generates about 1.2 yards before contact for their running backs. The receiving room also lacks a top-end playmaker like the Bears have had in recent years. As a result, Baylor is just 77th in plays of 20+ yards this season.

TCU is most vulnerable against explosive opposing run games, something Baylor sorely lacks. Both teams have a propensity to turn the ball over, but Baylor excels in forcing turnovers. Inopportune turnovers from TCU will sink the ship early.

Nov 11, 2023; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda looks on during the fourth quarter against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports / © Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Opponent Rundown

Team: Baylor Bears

Record: 3-7 (2-5 Big 12)

Coach: Dave Aranda (4th season)

Scoring Offense: 22.1 points per game (96th)

Scoring Defense: 35.2 points per game (120th)

Baylor 2023 Schedule

Date	Opponent	Result
Sept. 2	Texas State	L 42-31
Sept. 9	Utah	L 20-13
Sept. 16	Long Island (FCS)	W 30-7
Sept. 23	Texas	L 38-6
Sept. 30	at UCF	W 36-35
Oct. 7	Texas Tech	L 39-14
Oct. 14	BYE
Oct. 21	at Cincinnati	W 32-29
Oct. 28	Iowa State	L 30-18
Nov. 4	Houston	L 25-24 (OT)
Nov. 11	at Kansas State	L 59-25
Nov. 18	at TCU
Nov. 25	West Virginia

TCU vs. Baylor Game Info

• When: Saturday, Nov. 18, 2:30 p.m. CT
• Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, TX)
• TV: ESPN+

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