TCU Football: What Did We Learn From The Season

After appearing in the National Championship, TCU became the first team in a non-Covid era to fail to reach bowl-eligible status the next season. However, what can fans take away from the season as a whole? Breaking down the negatives and the positives of the whole year.

5-7, the TCU Horned Frogs, fresh off a national championship appearance, finished the season 5-7. People will tell you that no one saw this coming, and "Oh wow, what happened to them? They were so good," but the answer is simple. This is what 90% of college football looks like for the country. Unless you are the cream of the top, such as Georgia, Ohio State, or Alabama, everyone has down years after great years; it's the natural process. Should that make this season hurt any less? No. However, some good and bad things can still be taken away from this season, and I will break that down, starting with the negative. 

Sonny Dykes looks on disappointed :: © Annie Rice/Lubbock Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Negative

The 3-3-5 is a failed system.

Well, technically. The 3-3-5 system is one of the best defensive schemes when executed well. This year's issue was the lack of a threat from the defensive line. The Horned Frogs were gashed on the ground and for big plays in the air. Offenses did not feel threatened by the TCU defensive front and had many extended plays due to a lack of pressure. Joe Gillespie is still the right guy for the job, and I believe that, given an entire off-season with the talented defensive line recruits, next season could be a completely different result. 

The Offensive Time of Possession

There are 133 teams in the country, and TCU ranked 122nd in Time of Possession. At the same time, much of that is because of their fast-paced offense, which is beautiful when it's working. I want to focus on the lack of rest given to the defense. In the Kansas State game, the Horned Frogs offense, after going down 7-0 on the first possession, killed only 1:24 of the game clock before punting the ball away. Without a commercial break, that is an estimated 100 seconds of rest before the defense has to come out again. And this wasn't a one-series trend; only two of their nine series that game were over two and a half minutes. 

Red-Zone Offense

Let me remind you there are only 133 teams in FBS. TCU ranked 122nd in the country in red-zone efficiency; only 11 teams in FBS were worse than them. Red-zone efficiency considers touchdowns and field goals, and the Frogs could only walk away with points 72% of the time. While 72% doesn't seem awful at first glance, it resides on the play calling in the red zone. For example, while TCU was on Baylor's 12-yard line and faced a third-and-two situation, Kendal Briles dialed up a fade route to Savion in the end zone. A play call is better suited for a second down based on probability and an understandable one when you are committed to going for it on fourth down. However, the play called on a fourth down was a reverse. Let me remind you: the Frogs only needed two yards for a fresh set of downs, two yards. All signs show Briles will be retained, and if that is the case, while he is stellar between the 20s, he has to be better in the red zone. 

Bend Don't Break

Bend don't break was the motto for this year's defense, finishing 106th in the country in yards per game at 421.5 yards allowed per game but allowing only 29.3 points per game. The odd thing about the defense this year is the strength of the team was expected to be the secondary, but the team was 117 in passing yards allowed per game at 260 and the bottom third of the FBS in yards per completion at 7.9 yards. Maybe this was the effect of low rest time between time on the field, or perhaps it was a lack of ability, but either way, the results next year need to be different.

The Positives

The Record Doesn't Tell The Full Story

Do you know the main difference between last season's team and this season? The result of a one-score game. Anyone can tell you that one-score game percentages are a 50/50 win probability, so last year, when all of them went into TCU's favor, the numbers say that this year, none of them should go the way of the Frogs. Unfortunately, that is precisely what happened. Let's say you flip all of the results of the one-score games; TCU finishes with a 9-3 record and is probably playing in the Big 12 Championship rather than missing a bowl game. So yes, the record looks terrible, but it could have looked great if the games went the same way as last season.

Josh Hoover

Coming out of spring camp, my biggest concern for the season was the lack of depth at the quarterback position, with Chance Nolan leaving the program after fall camp. Chander Morris wasn't known to be an Iron Man, and the lack of experience could prove to be a problem if he went down with an injury. Little did TCU fans know that Hoover would step in and not only look like a missing piece to a puzzle but an ignitor the team so desperately needed. Hoover finished the season with 2206 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only nine interceptions, and a QBR good enough for 17th in the country at 77.1. The team rallied around Hoover throughout the season, and week after week, we saw the young QB grow with more game experience. Next could be a big year for Hoover and the offense with him at the helm. 

Next Season Is A New Season

Yes, this season did not go well; it failed to meet expectations. That is all in the past. The last game of the season is two weeks removed now, and the Frogs have moved on to the 2024 season, and fans should do the same. While it is a tough pill to swallow that TCU won't be in even a bowl game, in nine months, people will be back in the Carter wearing purple and cheering for success in the new look conference. There will be a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball, including two new faces at punter and kicker, and every single one of those players will need your support, and that won't happen if fans compare them to previous years' teams. 

While there was not much to smile about at the end of the season, TCU fans should take solace in this; even though the team finished with only five wins, they still beat SMU and Baylor at home. Now is the time to reflect on the season, close the chapter, and anticipate what next year can bring. In the meantime, maybe pick up a minor TCU sport at the top of their sport but fails to get the spotlight, such as rifle, equestrian, or women's basketball. Regardless, the team could finish 0-12, and I know my support would not waiver for the Frogs and what Sonny Dykes is doing, and neither should yours.

Big 12 Football Power Rankings: Week 14 – Final Standings

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