TCU Horned Frogs at Houston Cougars Odds, Betting Picks: College Football Week 3

TCU opens Big 12 Conference play as a road favorite at Houston.Picking against the odds for the Horned Frogs at Cougars.

The TCU Horned Frogs (1-1) hit the road for the first time this season and open up Big 12 Conference play at the Houston Cougars (1-1). TCU is a 7.5-point road favorite and the game carries an over/under set at 64.5 points. TCU at Houston kicks off Saturday, Sept. 16, at 7:00 p.m. CT on FOX.

There's a marginal chance of precipitation during the game, about 20%. However, winds are forecast to be light. When it comes to betting point totals, wind is a larger factor than rain – precipitation rarely affects game totals unless that rain is driving.

Need a quick rundown on how betting odds work?

TCU At Houston Pick Against The Spread

Sportsbooks opened the line TCU -7, but influential bettors moved the number to -7.5. (Reminder: sportsbooks don't arbitrarily move their own odds! Rather than "oddsmakers moved," it's more accurate to say "markets moved.") While it's just a half-point, that movement is significant. 14% of college football games historically end with a seven-point differential. That means just that half-point shift changed your expected win rate by 14%!

Without even diving into the matchup itself, laying -7.5 is a mistake. Occasional -7s do appear, so if you're looking to back TCU, that's the number to play.

My college football model – which is an aggregated rating from several established power ratings to create a market "consensus" – favors TCU by 6.9 points. Going off this number alone isn't enough to bet TCU against the spread.

Genuine concerns arose in TCU's Week 1 loss to Colorado. Primarily, game planning and coaching on both sides of the football lacked, and TCU's defense looked unprepared. With tape out on Houston, and two more weeks to prepare, ideally, Joe Gillespie calls a more sensible game.

Ultimately, I have no play on the spread for this game. If you are looking to back TCU, find a sportsbook that offers -7 and do not settle for the -7.5. If you are looking to back Houston, +7.5s are widely available and would be a significantly better bet than +7.

Colorado at TCU Over/Under Pick

Houston runs a similar pace to Colorado, running a new play every 22 seconds (13th-most). TCU runs a new play every 19.3 seconds, the fifth-fastest pace in the nation. With two defenses that have been exposed once this year (Houston allowed 43 in overtime to Rice!) and two fast-paced offenses, it's no surprise this game carries one of the higher over/unders on the week.

Many respected models like FEI and SP+ project this game to go over its total.

However, I'm going to lean under the 64.5-point total.

Houston has a serious problem blocking on the right side of their line. 42% of all pressures have come from the right guard and tackle, and Houston QB Donovan Smith contributed to 12% of all pressures himself. TCU's defensive front was rendered useless as Colorado pushed the ball to the perimeter, but Dana Holgorsen's offense operates differently than the Buffs. TCU should be able to get pressure on Smith and force him to run or to make bad decisions.

Ultimately, Houston hasn't pushed the ball downfield enough this season. Smith's average depth of target on his passes is at just 8.4 yards – below FBS average – and his yards per completion sits at a meager 6.5. Houston as a team has a success rate of just 35.4% (52nd) and nine plays of 20+ yards (68th).

Emani Bailey continues to be the engine that drives TCU's defense. His 5.03 yards after contact per rush is the fourth-best mark in the country (min. 20 rushes). Houston is a poor tackling team dating back even through last season, with 22 missed tackles in two games and being graded 25th-worst by Pro Football Focus. Bailey should continue to find success in this game.

Focus on the ground game from TCU mixed with an inconsistent Houston offense could lead to more time grinding off the clock.

Brett Gibbons is a lead college football betting writer for TheLines.com.

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