TCU Horned Frogs Vs. SMU Mustangs Odds, Betting Picks: College Football Week 4

TCU hosts SMU for the 102nd Battle For The Iron Skillet. Picking against the odds for the Mustangs at Horned Frogs.

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) host the rival SMU Mustangs (2-1) in the 102nd Battle For The Iron Skillet. TCU is a 6.5-point home favorite and the game has an over/under set at 62.5 points. SMU at TCU kicks off Saturday, Sept. 23, at 11:00 a.m. CT and will be broadcast on FS1.

Wind is going to be an issue in Fort Worth on Saturday. While rain and storms aren't expected until Sunday, sustained winds in excess of 15 mph are forecast for the game. Gusts may peak higher than that and wind does affect scoring.

Need a quick rundown on how betting odds work?

SMU At TCU Pick Against The Spread

After opening briefly at -7.5, the market swiftly bought stock in SMU. Though a move from -7.5 to -6.5 represents just one point, it's a significant move. Over the last five years, 14% of all college football games ended with a seven-point differential. That means that one point move represents a 14% shift in expected win rate on the point spread.

It also represents opportunity to bet TCU on the spread. The line did touch down to -5.5 at one point and that's when buyback on the Frogs began. So long as the spread remains under -7, taking the points with home team is the side I lean.

In general, the two teams are fairly evenly matched, with SMU having the nod in pass rush and at quarterback while TCU has the advantage in the trenches and in the back seven of their defense. The Mustangs do have a solid cast of receivers, but not to the level of Colorado. TCU's secondary should match up well with players like Jordan Hudson and mitigate the ball movement from SMU.

On offense, TCU will have to rely on Emani Bailey to break big runs in between the tackles to negate an aggressive SMU pass rush. When pressured, Chandler Morris completes just 43% of his passes (a bottom-30 number nationally!), has just 5.0 yards per completion, and more turnover-worthy throws than touchdowns.

I don't have a play on the spread in this game. Both teams have two unusable data points, and the one usable example features wildly different outcomes than expected. This game, however, will give us a great usable datapoint to gauge each team moving forward.

SMU at TCU Over/Under Pick

In recent history, SMU has been an all-gas and no-breaks style team. For evidence of just how potent an offense the Mustangs field, look no further than their 77-63 victory over Houston last year – a score not taken from the basketball court. And coming into this game, the odds are priced like SMU still options to not field a defense.

But that's not the case in 2023. Through three games, SMU has fielded a surprisingly stout stop unit, one that held Oklahoma to 28 points (and just 14 thorough three frames). That's led by a ferocious pass rush that ranks best in the country, according to Pro Football Focus.

Though Houston may not field a great offense, TCU held the Cougars to just 13 points. The talent is there on TCU's defense, so long as they are prepared for their opponent. SMU is a familiar foe, and the Horned Frogs should be well prepared, even against a new quarterback.

For a second consecutive week, I'm betting under the point total of 63. This number already ticked down from 64.5 earlier in the week, likely in response to weather. Between two defenses that may be better than expected and notable winds, these two offenses may struggle to score.

Brett Gibbons is a lead college football betting writer for TheLines.com.

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