TCU Horned Frogs Vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Odds, Betting Picks: College Football Week 5
Big 12 Conference play rolls on as the TCU Horned Frogs (3-1) host the West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1) in Week 5 of the college football season. TCU is a 12.5-point home favorite, and the over/under sits at 52 points. After dropping the opening game outright, TCU has covered their last three contests. West Virginia, on the other side, has out-performed preseason expectations en route to wins over arch-rival Pitt and Big 12 rival Texas Tech.
West Virginia at TCU kicks off Saturday, Sept. 30, at 7:00 p.m. CT. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2 and 88.7 FM KTCU from Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Need a quick rundown on how betting odds work?
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West Virginia At TCU Pick Against The Spread
Oddsmakers initially opened this point spread in favor of TCU -9. Those early to the market quickly bought that up to move the number to its current standing, TCU -12.5 (and growing yet). While the 3.5-point movement is notable, it's not nearly as big a swing as, say, -2.5 to -6 or -4.5 to -8. That's because this movement did not move through a key betting figure.
Key betting figures encompass -3, +3, -7, and +7 (-10 is a secondary key figure, though). In college football, games end with a three-point differential about 17% of the time and a seven-point differential 14% of the time. But the move from -9 to -12.5 only represents about a 17% change in expected win rate in its entirety.
Bettors perhaps thought WVU's hot 3-1 start kept this number too conservative. After all, the Mountaineers beat a Pitt team that is significantly worse than preseason expectations and Texas Tech, whose starting QB left after the first quarter with an injury. At this juncture, the Mountaineers are out-kicking their coverage.
TCU runs the fifth-fastest-paced offense in the country (21.5 seconds per play). With an efficient run game behind Emani Bailey and a stout offensive line, the Horned Frogs have built their offense around the run game. WVU counters well, allowing the 17th-worst rushing efficiency on the year.
WVU's secondary has also played very well, albeit scantly tested. TCU's receiver corps has the sixth-most drops in the country, and Chandler Morris struggles when forced to throw into tight coverage.
But the biggest advantage TCU has is that WVU is a run-exclusive offense. CJ Donaldson leads the charge, and when he doesn't get going, neither does the offense. At their pace and style of play, a two-score second-half lead could be insurmountable.
It's that reason that I lean TCU -12.5, and would make that bet up to -13.5.
WVU at TCU Over/Under Pick
The last two games for TCU went under their point total. False beliefs about the efficiency of the Frogs – particularly in the pass game – and their opponents led to inflated totals. This week, you may be able to take advantage again.
West Virginia sits 97th in points per drive scored and 105th in explosiveness (EPA/play). This simply isn't a team capable of carrying their weight in the scoring department.
But their defense is legitimate and counters what TCU likes to do well. Despite a blistering pace from the Horned Frogs, there could be far more three-and-outs from TCU this week than we've seen all season long, even if the game is never really in doubt. 52 points would likely be relying on West Virginia to score 20 or more points, something they haven't done against FBS competition yet.
So, for one more week until the market likely adjusts fully, I'm taking Under 52 points in the game.
Brett Gibbons is a lead college football betting writer for TheLines.com. So far on the season, he is 3-1 in TCU betting picks found in these articles.
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