TCU at Iowa State: Odds, Analysis, Prediction

How does TCU stack up against Iowa State this week? What does the expected game script say about betting lines? Get odds and analysis for TCU at Iowa State.

© Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The TCU Horned Frogs (5-6, 3-5 Big 12) are 14-point road underdogs against the Iowa State Cyclones (6-5, 4-4). This game has an over/under of 58.5 points.

In the regular season finale, TCU is fighting for bowl eligibility but faces a disadvantageous matchup in Iowa State. The Cyclones locked up bowl eligibility two weeks ago and have lost their last two games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma– both games on the road.

All season long, the Frogs have been bullied at the line of scrimmage both offensively and defensively. That was highlighted in their final home game last week against Kansas. It’s also led to TCU being in the bottom ten defending the run, allowing a staggering 232.5 yards on the ground per game.

Iowa State fields one of the biggest offensive lines not only in the Big 12, but in the nation. All five starters weigh in at least 310 pounds and stand an average of 6’ 3.8” tall, a monstrous wall for preseason All American running back Breece Hall to run behind. Hall’s picked up over 1,200 yards on the season on a Big 12-leading 235 attempts.

The game plan against TCU this season has been crystal clear: run the dang football. Opponents have dialed up a run on the Frogs with the eighth-highest frequency in the nation at 59.2% of all plays called. When a team pounds the football, time gets eaten up.

On the other side, TCU showed last week that deficits and urgency won’t take them away from calling run after run. On multiple third downs, the Frogs called run plays– be it to Emari Demarcado, Kendre Miller, or Max Duggan. With Duggan back in the lineup, the amount of pass plays called plummet; he attempted just 16 passes against Kansas.

There’s not much motivation to pass on Iowa State, anyway. They’re seventh nationally against the pass and Duggan’s been inconsistent at best through the air this season.

This game is likely going to be a methodical one filled with runs and medial chunk plays gained by the Cyclones. Without a sturdy defensive front, Iowa State will keep going to the well with Hall and time is going to disappear. Because of this, I don’t expect either team to score enough points for the total to go over 58.5 points.

The pick: UNDER 58.5 points

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