TCU vs Cincinnati Odds, Betting Prediction for College Football Week 14

The Horned Frogs hope to improve to eight wins in their last regular season matchup. They travel to Cincinnati as 2-point favorites.

Nov 18, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes before the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Baylor Bears at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs are now 7-4 on the season after their trashing of the Arizona Wildcats last weekend with a score of 49-28. With that score, the Frogs covered the spread (-11) and the over/under (58.5). This week, they travel north to face the freezing conditions to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats as -3.5-point favorites.

TCU has an FPI probability of 52.7% to win this game and is 7-4 against the spread after covering against Arizona. The over/under is also 7-4 on the season after finishing with a combined score of 77 last week.

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TCU vs Cincinnati Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Nov 23, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) drops back to pass during the fourth quarter against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

For the third straight week, TCU's opponents are in a precarious spot, wondering what went wrong this season. Eight games into the season, the Bearcats were 5-2 and had a realistic path to the conference championship. Since then, they have lost four straight games and hope to become bowl-eligible, with their last shot against the Horned Frogs this weekend. With Brendan Sorsby at the helm, TCU head coach Sonny Dykes said, "It's a high compliment to call him a game manager," noting his ability to throw the ball well into tight windows, and defensive lineman Donati Corleone, the Bearcats have the talent to win this matchup.

This game is precarious. The Bearcats lack a high-powered offense (only 35 touchdowns on the season) but make up for it by only giving up 32 touchdowns. On the other hand, TCU scored 49 touchdowns on the season, scoring at a 91% rate in the red zone.

With that said, Cincinnati lacks the offensive power to make this a shootout, and the TCU offense has been rolling the last four weeks. The line opened at -3.5 in favor of TCU and since then had shifted to -2, meaning that the majority of the betting money has gone in favor of the Bearcats. However, I am opting to side with the public, and I am choosing to have faith in the TCU offense to continue rolling this weekend and covers the spread in a win.

The pick: TCU -2 or better

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TCU vs Cincinnati Odds: Pick Against The Total

Nov 23, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Savion Williams (3) runs the ball against the Arizona Wildcats in the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

For the second straight week, the point total for this game is set at 58.5, which makes more sense for this game than the Arizona one.

Cincinnati has been on a four-game losing streak and has averaged only 19 points, a major step back from the 31 points a game they were averaging in the three games before that. On the other side of the field, the Horned Frogs are averaging 39 points a game, a massive increase from the 23 points they averaged in the three games before that.

Now you have two offenses on entirely different paths, and it is the last game of the season where any play that hasn't been used yet this season. However, this could be a defense slugfest with the weather conditions being double-digit wind speeds and below-freezing temperatures.

With that said, I am taking under on this game, but just barely. I think the score range ends somewhere in the 50's but doesn't reach the 59-point threshold.

The pick: Under 58.5 or better

2024 Record: 4-0

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