TCU vs Oklahoma State Odds, Betting Prediction for College Football Week 11

After a loss against their rival last week, the Horned Frogs are still searching for bowl eligibility. They host Oklahoma State as ten-point favorites at home.

Oct 19, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes runs off the field at the end of the first half against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs are 5-4 on the season after losing to their rivals Baylor last weekend. Although they haven't reached bowl eligibility yet, the Frogs did manage to cover the spread (+3) with the final score being 37-34. This week, the Horned Frogs take on an Oklahoma State Cowboys team that is still looking for their first conference win, and they are currently -10 favorites.

TCU has an FPI probability of 61.2% to win this game, and are currently 5-4 against the spread after covering against the Bears last weekend. The over is 6-3, with 72 points covering the 63 points over/under.

TCU vs. Oklahoma State Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Nov 2, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) passes the ball against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

When looking at the pre-season projection for the Cowboys, fans find themselves puzzled by the spot Mike Gundy and his team are in. After opening the season as overwhelming favorites to be in Arlington playing for a conference championship, the Pokes still find themselves searching for the first Big 12 win of the season. The Pokes returned 20 of 22 starters from last season, including QB Alan Bowman, who was benched during the season due to his play but is the starter again after an injury.

Another thing to keep in mind for this matchup is that Oklahoma State has the 132nd-ranked defense in all of FBS. There are only 134 teams. The Pokes give up over 500 yards per game and also give up over 31 points per game. Compare that to their offense, who, despite having All-American Ollie Gordon II rank 117th in rushing offense per game, and a quarterback who struggled so much he was benched during the season.

With that said, -10 still feels like many points from a Horned Frog team that has struggled to find consistency throughout the season. The Frogs have been trending upward in their offensive consistency in the last two games after struggling against Houston and Utah. A win puts the Frogs bowl-eligible, something the coaching staff hasn't done since 2022, which was also the last time TCU played the Cowboys and won in a walk-off overtime thriller. I'm going with my gut on this one and believing in the TCU offense to find sustained success against the Oklahoma State defense that has struggled all year.

The pick: TCU -10 or better

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TCU At Baylor Odds: Pick Against The Total

Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Alan Bowman (7) warms up before the college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Arizona State Sun Devils at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Nov., 2, 2024. / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Oklahoma State offense averages 29 points per game, carried by its non-conference performance. When adjusted to just conference play, it averages 22 points per game—a near touchdown difference. On the other side of the ball, TCU averages 32 points per game, carried by Long Island (45) and SMU (42). When adjusted to conference play, the Frogs average 28 points per game.

With TCU's defense's main struggles coming against the run, Oklahoma State's inability to get Gordon going, and the Horned Frog's inability to remain consistent on the offensive side of the ball, I believe the line is set slightly too high for this one.

The pick: Under 68 points or better

2024 record: 0-0

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