TCU Vs. Texas Tech Odds, Betting Prediction For College Football Week 9

TCU hosts Texas Tech as -6.5 favorites for homecoming weekend. What can those looking to bet this Big 12 rivalry game expect?

Nov 2, 2023; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive end Myles Cole (6) pressures Texas Christian Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in the first half at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images / Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

Coming off a bye week and successful rebound, the TCU Horned Frogs (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) host the rival Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2, 3-1) for homecoming weekend. The visitors lost their last game off a bye, falling to Baylor, 59-35. TCU climbed from a -5.5 favorite at open to -6.5 by Friday afternoon. The over/under sits at a lofty 66.5 points.

Adjusted for the vigorish (think of it as a sportsbook tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 67.1%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 4-3 against the spread, covering a +7 spread and with the outright upset of Utah, 13-7, last time out. The closing underdog has won each of the last five contests outright involving TCU. The over is 4-3, with 20 points falling well short of a lined 52-point over/under.

TCU Vs. Texas Tech Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Texas Tech's linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (10) makes a tackle against TCU, Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023, at Jones AT&T Stadium. / Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

A 5-2 record, including 3-1 in league play, is an impressive resume. Tech notched wins over Arizona State (5-2) and Cincinnati (5-2) to close out September. But as nice as those Big 12 wins were, the Red Raiders have a number of glaring flaws. The first was immediate straight out of the gate: defensively, Texas Tech is incredibly inconsistent.

Tech surrendered a staggering 51 points and needed a conversion in overtime to stave off FCS Abilene Christian, 52-51, in Week 1. Week 2 featured a sound beating at Washington State, 37-16 (a team that's turned in a good effort so far). While Tech piled up the wins leading into the bye, they faltered again, giving up a season-high 59 points to Baylor (3-4, ranked 60th in points per drive).

This team allows points and yards to teams in chunks. Even in a 30-22 win over Arizona State, the Sun Devils out-gained the Red Raiders on a per-play basis (5.5-4.0). Arizona averaged nearly half a first down every snap despite scoring 22. The only team to be thoroughly outplayed by Tech was UNT, who piled up 350 yards, most of which was when the game was firmly away.

To make the defensive uneasiness worse, the unit's best defensive tackle, E'Maurion Banks, was declared out for the year last week.

So while "fraudulent" might be a bit extreme here, Tech is at the very least extremely flawed. Against a team that plays with pace in TCU, and especially one that attacks frequently through the air, it would be surprising to see a lockdown defensive performance. And with top-10 Iowa State and everpresent Colorado on tap, this could be a lookahead spot for Tech, despite it being a rivalry game.

Only twice since 2017 has this series ended in a one-score match – both times won by Tech. With the Frogs at home, I lean the points with the favorite.

• The pick: TCU -6

TCU Vs. Texas Tech Odds: Pick Against The Total

Sep 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) hands off to running back Cam Cook (4) against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

66.5 points is a lot of points. Just to barely nudge the over, you're asking for a 37-30 game, which is right about where the sportsbooks line this one to be. This season, Tech played in games featuring 103, 94, 87, and 85 points. The over sits at just 4-3, as many of these games (namely against UNT) were projected shootouts.

The low-water mark for the Red Raiders this year include 52 and 53 points.

Conversely, we've seen TCU play in games with 108 and three other games over 60. But we've also seen 20 points (extenuating circumstances) and 49 points. The Frogs tend to play the pace of game the opponent does. At home, TCU plays 6.5 fewer snaps per game than on the road, an FBS slate that featured UCF and Houston.

So, with the unpredictability from TCU's side and the inconsistency from Texas Tech, particularly on defense, I'm staying far away from this total.

• The pick: No bet

2024 record: 5-4

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