UCF At TCU Odds, Betting Prediction For College Football Week 3

The TCU Horned Frogs find themselves as short +2.5 home underdogs to UCF in Week 3.

Aug 30, 2024; Stanford, California, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-0) open Big 12 Conference play this weekend when they host the UCF Knights (2-0). TCU is a +2.5 home underdog to UCF and sportsbooks make the over/under 61.5 points. Initially, TCU opened as a short -1.5 home favorite, but bettors have preferred UCF through midweek, moving the line in the Knights' favor.

Adjusted for the vigorish (think of it as a sportsbook tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 45.2%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 1-1 against the spread, failing to cover 9.5 points on the road at Stanford (won, 34-27) and barely covered the best available number against Long Island (-44.5), winning handily, 45-0. The over is also 1-1, with 61 points being enough to cover a closing number of 59.5 at Stanford, but 45 total points not being enough to cover 56.5 closing points against LIU.

UCF at TCU Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Sep 7, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass against the Long Island Sharks in the third quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

What the UCF at TCU Spread Means

Let's be clear here: Even the best sports bettors in the world – the ones who move sportsbook odds with their bets – win 55% of the time. That means 45% of the time, they're on the wrong side. But when a spread moves that many points (three full points with no buyback), it's worth noting. Should this number move to or through +3, that indicates a key betting figure.

In the past 10 seasons, roughly 17% of all college football games end with a three-point differential. That means when a spread hits +3, it represents a 17% shift in implied probability. A 17% swing in betting percentage is the difference between making a living off betting and going completely broke in about a year, for context.

Since college football games cannot end in a tie, a move through zero actually represents a very small shift in win probability; therefore, the move from TCU -1.5 to +2.5 is actually less significant than a move from TCU +2.5 to +3.5.

But it also means getting UCF under -3 is a big deal.

How I'm Betting UCF at TCU

Aug 29, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) runs the ball during the first quarter against the New Hampshire Wildcats at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

There's been a notable difference in defensive performance and scheme from Joe Gillespie at defensive coordinator to Andy Avalos. In general, I'm throwing TCU's game against Long Island out the window. The Sharks rank 107th among Division I-AA teams and this result went as expected (TCU could be found at -44.5 and -45.5, landed on -45).

Let's be clear about another thing here: UCF is a much better opponent than either LIU or Stanford.

The Knights haven't really been tested this year, rolling FCS New Hampshire (57-3) and Sam Houston State (45-14). UCF features a dynamite run game headed by QB K.J. Jefferson and backs R.J. Harvey (six touchdowns, second-most nationally), Myles Montgomery, and Peny Boone. Jefferson hasn't needed to throw the football yet.

Gus Malzahn is known for his dynamic rushing attacks. That will continue in Fort Worth, regardless of TCU's strengths or scheme defensively.

My numbers make TCU closer to a pick 'em (zero spread) than -3 here. But numbers aren't everything. Stanford QB Ashton Daniels made plays with his legs time and time again in Week 1. Jefferson (6-foot-3, 250 pounds) is capable of making the same plays and then some. Safety Bud Clark is questionable for the game.

Ultimately, I think UCF is the better team. Though under new direction defensively and with some new additions, the Horned Frogs have struggled with physical running teams in the past few years. And it's tough to disagree with those so steadfast in their picks who make a living off it. I'd rather be on the 55% side here.

• The pick: UCF -2.5 (-110) or better

UCF At TCU Odds: Pick Against The Total

Oct 8, 2022; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Johnny Hodges (57) defends during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

It's supposed to be extremely hot in Fort Worth on Saturday. Highs are forecast near 100º and kickoff here happens over 90 minutes before sunset. Heat fatigues players faster, whether they're accustomed to it or not. Both TCU and UCF play in extremely hot climates.

Because the game will be much hotter in the first half than the second, I'm targeting the first half total. I'm taking under the first half total (31 points) because I believe both teams will suffer from fatigue and tempo will need to be tempered.

Believe these two offenses will be off to the races, similar to a blistering-hot first half in Fort Worth last year against Colorado? Then target defenses getting fatigued in the first half but maintaining the second half and bet under there.

UCF plays in high-total games because of its explosiveness and tempo. But when the heat is cranked up to 100º, that tempo falters and explosive plays become fewer and farther between.

• The pick: First Half Under 31 points

2024 betting record: 1-0

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