Predicting The 2024 TCU Horned Frogs Record Game-By-Game

The tried and true – and extremely flawed – method of predicting TCU's record by schedule returns as the college football season grows large in the window.

Oct 14, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Savion Williams (3) in action during the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Brigham Young Cougars at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Forecasting a college football team by assigning wins or losses to each game on its schedule is an irresistibly flawed tradition. Every fan's done it – browsing the list of opponents on the TCU Horned Frogs schedule and predicting wins and losses. So, with the upcoming college football season just days away, let's pull up TCU's 2024 football schedule and do just that.

Looking for a little more in-depth (and accurate) way to forecast a win-loss record? I'll do that after the more fun way.

Predicting TCU's 2024 Football Season Game-by-Game

Thanks to a departing Oklahoma and Texas, TCU plays a markedly easier schedule this year than the last. ESPN's FPI ranks the Horned Frogs' slate of opponents the 47th-most difficult nationally, but that's good for the fourth-most difficult in the Big 12. The non-conference slate is winnable, though two away games make it harder than it appears at first.

Week 1: at Stanford Cardinal

Don't be so quick to the window to mark this one up as an automatic win. The Cardinal may have gone a lackluster 3-9 last season and, at times, were noncompetitive, but a combination of QB Ashton Daniels and WR Elic Aymanor makes them potentially dangerous. Does anyone really need a reminder of last year's opener? That's how things could go sideways.

TCU has to button up and take care of business on the road late at night (9:30 pm CT kickoff).

Predicted result: WIN (1-0)

Week 2: vs. LIU Sharks

Fire the entire staff if TCU loses this game.

Predicted result: WIN (2-0)

Week 3: vs. UCF Knights

UCF got a LOT better in the transfer portal this offseason. K.J. Jefferson immediately becomes one of the best QBs in the Big 12 and UCF's backfield is the conference's deepest. Guz Malzahn is a whiz in the run game, leading UCF to the fourth-most rushing yards in the country last year.

And that run game just got a lot better.

This week will be a fascinating chess match between Malzahn's offense and Andy Avalos' defense. But Malzahn's been in place longer with a more recent proof of concept. I think UCF is going to be very, very good this year.

Predicted result: LOSS (2-1)

Week 4: at SMU Mustangs

This is a rivalry quickly becoming scarce. In the penultimate Skillet Game, both teams are clammoring to put a stamp on the matchup. After 2025, whoever loses must hold their peace indefinitely. It's a shame to see the game go, but it also makes the next two matchups extremely interesting.

I'm concerned with how SMU QB Preston Stone looks after breaking his leg late in the 2023 season. Reports say he's back to 100%, but that kind of injury takes a mental toll on the player returning to action. The Mustangs have only taken two from TCU since 2012 – both in 5-7 campaigns. And despite finishing 11-3 last year, TCU beat them.

The Horned Frogs just have their cross-metro rival's number.

Predicted result: WIN (3-1)

Week 5: at Kansas Jayhawks

"At" is a little misleading here. TCU plays Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium while the Jayhawks complete a $300M overhaul of their own facility in Lawrence. The result could be disastrous for this edition of KU and Arrowhead is a big enough draw to out-of-town fans to flock to. I anticipate a more 60-40 split for KU at "home" games in K.C. this year, as opposed to 80-20. That hurts.

There's no insurance policy behind QB Jalon Daniels this year and losing OC Andy Kotelnicki is a big blow to the offense. I like Kansas to continue being frisky – good, even – but it's less of a worry playing this team on the road when the road is really neutral.

Predicted result: WIN (4-1)

Week 6: vs. Houston Cougars

Houston will be more well-rested for this short week, having played at home last week. Willie Fritz is a terrific hire for the program long-term. I don't personally buy the Donovan Smith NFL Draft hype – I really do believe it's a meme in progress – and the Cougars are projected to be near the bottom of the league this year.

Although this game could be closer than it should be, I trust Sonny Dykes and TCU to not drop this stinker at home.

Predicted result: WIN (5-1)

Week 7: BYE

Everyone's favorite opponent.

Week 8: at Utah Utes

The second half of TCU's schedule is far less kind than its early season slate. TCU fans may recall games at Rice-Eccles Stadium when the two teams shared a conference from 2005-10. Kyle Whittingham won two of three of those matchups at home, falling in 2010. But this Utah team is reloading from an injury-riddled 2023 and is ready to compete on the national scale.

I believe two things. First, that this game could evolve into the Big 12's premier rivalry. Second, that Utah is a really good football team that might back up the offseason online trash talk this year.

Predicted result: LOSS (5-2)

Week 9: vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

If you're unfamiliar with the body blow theory, let's take a quick look. Typically applied to games played after facing a service academy, teams fare poorly after getting beat up by tough and physical teams, win or lose those games. It's evident across college football – after playing Navy last year, USF was favored by three over its next opponent, UAB, and was crushed 56-35. After a close call with Air Force, UNLV dropped its last two games, one as a favorite.

Anyway, Utah plays a similar brand of football. This could be a body blow game for TCU, softening it up for a home rivalry with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have to stay healthy, particularly at the QB position. If they do, this team could be dangerous.

The home team usually takes this game, but this could be a real letdown spot for the Horned Frogs.

Predicted result: LOSS (5-3)

Week 10: at Baylor Bears

Here's a bold claim: I expect Dave Aranda to be gone or for this to be his last game in Waco as head coach. Baylor midly improved its offense by hiring Jake Spavital and landing Toledo QB Dequan Finn in the portal. However, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year struggled with accuracy at times and played against seriously worse competition; against Power Conference opponents at Toledo, Finn completed about 50% of his passes and never cracked 240 passing yards.

Here's a less bold claim: I don't think Baylor is going to be very good this year.

Predicted result: WIN (6-3)

Week 11: vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

TCU upended Oklahoma State at home each of the last three times these teams played in Fort Worth. Mike Gundy is just 1-3 in Fort Worth since the annual series began in 2012. But this is a tough spot for TCU, coming off two true rivalry games and a brutal road test at Utah in the last three weeks (even if one of those rivals isn't terrific). To fold this game in here completes a difficult stretch between bye weeks.

The Pokes are being picked to finish third or fourth in the Big 12 this year. I think that's too low, based on Gundy's historic excellence in the regular season and Oklahoma State returning 85% of its roster production from last year. Upon returning a few offensive linemen from injury during last year's bye week, the Pokes really picked things up, winning eight of their final 10 games. That's the Oklahoma State I expect this year.

Predicted result: LOSS (6-4)

Week 12: BYE

With an extra Saturday folded into the mix this year, teams get two bye weeks!

Week 13: vs. Arizona Wildcats

Let me pose a question, are we sure Arizona is going to continue its winning ways this coming season? They lose a terrific head coach that rebuilt the program, a first-round NFL offensive lineman, several key contributors to the portal, and they move conferences. Are we positive this is a top-25 team?

QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan are the conference's most dynamic duo. The skill talent does go beyond that, including landing 1,000-yard rusher Jacory Croskey-Merritt from New Mexico. But I think it's foolish to think that a team will continue its historical outlier of a run without its most fundamental pieces and structure.

Just food for thought.

Actual useful information: TCU has a rest advantage in this game, coming off a bye and playing at home. Arizona does not come off a bye and plays on the road.

Predicted result: WIN (7-4)

Week 14: at Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati should be a better team than what it was last year. But improvement could be marginal, as the team took a couple blows to its stud defensive line before the season started. All-American DT Dontay Corleone appears positioned to play this year after a blood clot scare, but an expected contributor, Jalen Hunt, is out for the season.

The Bearcats landed Indiana QB Brendan Sorsby in the portal and he should bring added playmaking ability as a dual-threat option QB. The offensive line could be the league's best and the secondary has studs in it. This could set up for a game where a 5-6 Cincinnati is fighting for bowl eligibility at home with TCU, who sits in a nebulous void between bowl-eligible but Playoff in-eligible.

That could make this game dangerous. I'll take TCU to win, because I think the Frogs are a better team, but I don't feel great about it (more on that later).

Predicted result: WIN (8-4)

A Better Way To Predict Final Record

Instead of marking 1, 0, 1, 1, 0 for wins against each opponent, assigning probabilities is the best way to go. After all, if TCU has a 55% chance to beat SMU, 45% of the time, they will lose. Adding these up comes out to an average expected number of wins. So now let's look at that schedule again with expected win probabilities (I promise these aren't pulled out of a hat, rather from aggregated industry power ratings):

at Stanford: 73.9% expected win rate for TCU
vs. LIU: 99%
vs. UCF: 60.7%
at SMU: 45.7%
at Kansas: 38%
vs. Houston: 82.7%
at Utah: 33.5%
vs. Texas Tech: 63.2%
at Baylor: 57.5%
vs. Oklahoma State: 52.6%
vs. Arizona: 52.6%
at Cincinnati: 66.5%

This way brings us to an average 7.3 wins this season. Given situational spots, I do believe 7-5 is more likely than 9-3. But flipping just one game – like SMU on the road – brings us to 8-4!

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