Why Tennessee Being a Touchdown Favorite at Oklahoma Is Historic

Oklahoma is not used to being big underdogs anywhere, especially at home.

Oklahoma offensive coordinator Seth Littrell talks with quarterback Jackson Arnold (11) before a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Tulane Green Wave at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When the line opened for Tennessee's game against Oklahoma in Norman, it represented an unusual situation for the Sooners.

The No. 6 Vols are 7.5-point favorites on Draft Kings over the No. 15 Sooners, with the over/under set for 58 points. That spread is interesting for a lot of reasons. In this game, the Vols will be looking for their second victory over a top-25 team in 2024. The Sooners have looked shaky in their last two wins over Houston and Tulane, and now they face one of the best teams in the country in Tennessee.

But not only is this line surprising, it is also historic.

Tennessee is a touchdown favorite at Oklahoma in Week 4.

Per @ESPNStatsInfo, its the first time the Sooners are a touchdown home underdog since Nov. 21, 1998 vs Texas Tech. A ranked Oklahoma team hasn't been a home dog of more than 4 points since at least 1978.

— Eli Lederman (@ByEliLederman) September 16, 2024

As the post above says, this is the first time that Oklahoma has been a touchdown home underdog since November 21, 1998, versus Texas Tech. That was the season before former Sooner head coach Bob Stoops started in Norman. That is a long time to go without being a touchdown-home underdog.

Going a step further, a ranked Oklahoma team has not been an underdog at home of more than four points since at least 1978, according to ESPN Stats and Info. That means that they have not been this much of an underdog as a ranked team in 46 years. That is a long streak that has been undone by this spread for the Tennessee game.

The line has changed drastically during the offseason and the weeks leading up to this game as well. Tennessee was a 5.5-point underdog to Oklahoma in early lines released in May on FanDuel. The Vols were just a 2.5-point favorite when the line updated on Thursday. It is clear that the public's perception of this game has changed as kickoff draws closer.

Regardless of the line, this will be the biggest challenge of the year for both the Vols and Sooners. This is the best competition that either team has faced so far in 2024. This game will give us the best measuring stick we have had of whether or not Tennessee can compete for an SEC championship.

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