How Likely is A Texas College Football Playoff Appearance This Season?
The Texas Longhorns are entering year two under coach Steve Sarkisian looking to vastly improve across the board from last season. In Sarkisian's first season at the helm in Texas the Longhorns would go an ugly 5-7, including a 57-56 overtime loss at home to the Kansas Jayhawks.
Now, as the Longhorns prepare for the season, there is cautious optimism among the fanbase that the team will look better. When looking at the talent on the Longhorns' offense it isn't hard to see why fans would be hopeful.
On offense Texas is led by the superstar duo of running back Bijan Robinson and receiver Xavier Worthy, with quarterback Quinn Ewers ready to sling it once September rolls around. Question marks along the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball, however, could give Texas trouble.
Ultimately, while it isn't impossible that the Longhorns reach the College Football Playoffs this season, there is a chance that they do. That slight chance is what landed the Longhorns in ESPN's Top 20 teams most likely to make the College Football Playoffs list.
Chance to make playoff: 17.4%
Chance to win national title: 1.6%
Toughest test: Sept. 10 vs. Alabama. ESPN's FPI loves Texas because of the offensive talent it returns, and this is the only game it doesn't give the Longhorns more than a 50% chance to win. This is the true barometer of how wide the gap is between Texas and the playoff.
When the Alabama Crimson Tide roll into Austin, the Longhorns will undoubtedly face their hardest game of the season. While a loss to the Crimson Tide won't eliminate a Longhorns' appearance in the College Football Playoffs, a win would offer a significant boost in their hopes of making it.
What the committee will like: A Big 12 title. Sounds obvious, but Texas hasn't done it since 2009, the program's longest drought in school history. The committee would overlook a loss to Bama if the Longhorns can beat the likes of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor en route to a league title. It could mean the difference in a debate against a one-loss Notre Dame that doesn't have a conference title.
What the committee won't like: Besides another loss to Kansas? More subpar defense. Yes, the committee has absolutely forgiven lousy defense in the past (See: 2018 Oklahoma), but the Sooners had the No. 1 offense in the nation to compensate for it. Texas has allowed at least 400 yards per game in each of the past three seasons, including last year's 426 yards per game -- the fifth most in program history. Last year's run defense ranked 114th in the FBS, allowing 202 yards on the ground per game, plus 5.2 yards per carry -- the second worst in school history.
There is no denying the sheer talent across the Longhorns' roster, but that has not stopped them from underachieving in recent memory. They are likely still a season or two away from being true playoff contenders, with Sarkisian building the culture he wants. However, their odds aren't completely zero this season, and should they do what they need to, the Longhorns may very well make a College Football Playoff appearance.
You can find Connor Zimmerlee on Twitter @Connorjz98
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