Longhorns Country Week 4 Predictions: Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears

Here's the LonghornsCountry Staff's predictions for Week 4's showdown in Waco between Baylor and Texas

Since 2011, the Bears have finished with at least 10 wins in years that feature an odd number at the end. Dave Aranda is two years removed from leading Baylor to a Big 12 title and top 10 finish in the AP Poll. And while last season was one of rebuilding, the defense should be one of the Big 12's best come this fall. 

Texas heads to McLane Stadium one final time as a Big 12 member before departing for the SEC. The Longhorns have dominated the series, winning six of the last 10 matchups, including last year's season finale in Austin. Steve Sarkisian is sold that the program is headed in the right direction, but all it takes is one early loss to derail a season and engulf madness among fans. 

The No. 3 Longhorns (3-0, 0-0 Big 12) remain the favorites to win the conference, a first since 2009. Baylor (1-2, 0-0 Big 12), which ranked sixth at Big 12 Media Days, already has lost two matchups and could be entering panic mode with another L on the docket at home. 

Here are the LonghornsCountry staff's predictions for a Week 4 showdown in Waco. 

Matt Galatzan, Publisher

Baylor should be down this year, while Texas is the runaway favorite heading into the season. Should the Horns make it through the tough start to their schedule, they could be in the drivers seat for a College Football Playoff berth. They wouldn't let Baylor get in the way of that. 

Texas 41, Baylor 20

Cole Thompson, Staff Writer

This is another "show me" game for the Longhorns. It has to be if they want to prove they're a national contender. You can't one week defeat Nick Saban on the road and the next be on upset watch against a pesky Wyoming squad. Consider this one close until the fourth quarter, but Texas pulls away. 

Does this mean the Longhorns are B-A-C-K? How about N-O-P-E.  

Texas 34, Baylor 21

Connor Zimmerlee, Staff Writer

In what was a hard fought, slugfest of a game in 2022, Texas outlasted Baylor. Rather than wrapping up conference play with its foes from Waco, Texas opens Big 12 play in 2023 on the road against Baylor. This game could very well set the tone for the rest of the season in Austin, which is why I anticipate another close game with Texas coming out on top.

Texas 38, Baylor 34

Casey Smith, Staff Writer

Texas and Baylor have alternated head-to-head wins since 2018 with the Longhorns winning last year. The Bears were 0-5 against ranked opponents in 2022 — a spot Texas looks to be in to begin the year. Baylor returns quarterback Blake Shapen and last year's leading rusher and receiver, but its defense will hold it back against Texas. 

The Bears were 62nd in both pass and rush defense, allowing 371 yards and 26.8 points per game last season, which won't bode well against Texas' expected explosive offense.

Texas 34, Baylor 23

Tori Garcia, Staff Writer

Expectations for the Texas Longhorns will be higher than ever this season, especially now that the Longhorns have completed two full years under head coach Steve Sarkisian. Some may even predict a conference title for Texas this year, but that is not to bypass the Baylor Bears. Last season, the Longhorns pulled out a 38-27 victory over the Bears in Austin. This season however, the Horns will be traveling to Waco and the dynamic of an away game is completely different, which may be a slight disadvantage to Texas. 

The Longhorns have a quarterback advantage with Quinn Ewers over Baylor's Blake Shapen. Just last season in DKR, Shapen only scored a 50 percent passing rate and averaged five yards per passing attempt. If the Longhorns' defense can consistently nag at the Bear's weak offensive line, who has replaced four starters on the line, and apply pressure to Shapen, Texas should be able to pull out a win.

Texas 35, Baylor 24

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