Keys The Game: Texas Longhorns vs. Rice Owls

Here's what the Longhorns have to do if they hope to beat Rice in Week 1's matchup.

Coaches study the film. Analysts look at the tape. Players practice and grind all week for a chance to impress on Saturdays.

Those are the usual trends leading up to any game in college football, but the harsh reality is only a handful of plays will dictate the outcome of a matchup — at least in games like the one Texas will play in Week 1 against Rice.

The Owls can be one of college football's biggest risers in 2023. Last season, they broke a seven-year hiatus of bowl ineligibility and found their way to play meaningful games in December. They were among the first programs the American Athletic Conference added once expansion became necessary to thrive.

Mike Bloomgren has Rice rocking into a new era of football. With the addition of former No. 1 overall QB recruit JT Daniels, expectations aren't to win a few games here or there; it's bowl-bound or bust. Overall, it's hard to imagine the Owls won't be fighting for a .500 season or better so long as the defense comes to life.

But again, in games such as these — those David vs. Goliath-pledged matchups — everything comes down to a few plays. In retrospect, the outcome won't even be decided by Rice, but rather Texas either meeting the standard or crumbling under pressure.

Here are several keys to victory for either side of Week 1's showdown at DKR Stadium.

Texas Wins If….

It extends plays on the perimeter

Last season, Rice allowed 29 touchdowns through the air, ranking 124th among FBS programs. While the Owls were able to corral receivers after the catch, their problem was falling for the big play attack downfield.

Quinn Ewers will have a kitchen sink full of talented targets to throw to in 2023. Ja'Tavion Sanders looks like one of the nation's best tight ends after a breakout 2022 campaign. Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington are back in action, not to mention fans will finally get a glimpse of former Wyoming receiver Isaiah Neyor in action. The rich only saw their chalice overflow with the arrival of former Georgia target A.D. Mitchell.

Rice played exceptionally well in the open field last season. It struggled on the edge. Remember the play against Alabama in Week 2 where Worthy outran a pair of defenders for a gain of 46? That should be the first, second and last thing on Steve Sarkisian's mind when scheming up plays.

Eliminate third-down conversions

The Longhorns already have seen Daniels walk into DKR with the intent of pulling off the upset. That ended in an 18-point victory in favor of the home squad.

Daniels, who enters his sixth season, did excel in one aspect with West Virginia last season: third-down conversions. The Mountaineers converted on 50 percent of their attempts, leading to three scoring drives. Perhaps the most significant advantage was time of possession. West Virginia's offense spent over 32 minutes on the field compared to Texas' 27.

This shouldn't completely change the game's outcome, but the Longhorns are a fast-scoring offense, leaving little time for the defense to catch its breath. At some point, that'll wear down players and serve as an advantage for the Owls.

Forcing Daniels to limit his conversion success rate likely builds a lead at home.

Rice Wins If….

JT Daniels reaches QB1 Hiesman-worthy potential.

It's baffling to see Daniels in this situation if you remember his past. Here was one of the top young passers who took USC by storm in 2019 at 18 years old and thought he'd never look back. Sure, the Trojans finished 5-7, but they had a young quarterback with immense upside and a year of reps under his belt.

Then came injuries, allowing someone else to take the starting job. Then, a transfer out east. Then it happened again, this time with Stetson "Van Wilder" Benett IV, who might go down in history as one of the greatest players in Georiga history. Who knows if that could have been Daniels should he have stayed healthy?

Rice is a program that could win 7-8 games as a first-year member of the AAC. Beating Texas and ending its Collge Football Playoff hopes Week 1 would be heralded as a national championship among Owls fans. For that to happen, Daniels must don the Superman persona instead of carrying on the Clark Kent charade.

Yes, it's a tall task, but the Longhorns are a program that scored 58 unanswered points and totaled 620 yards of offense against the Owls two years ago. That was Year 1 of Sarkisian getting his feet wet. This is as close to a finished product of the "All Gas No Breaks" persona he once spoke of.

Best believe there's only one way to win, which comes from QB1 of 2018 beating out QB1 of 2021.