Texas vs. Mississippi State Week 5 Preview: Keys to the Game

Two teams with brand new stories heading into 2024, can the Bulldogs upset the Longhorns in Texas' first SEC conference game?

Sep 21, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Johnnie Daniels (20) reacts with teammates after a touchdown against the Florida Gators during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-Imagn Images / Matt Bush-Imagn Images

With just a few days separating the Texas Longhorns from its past and its future, Texas and Mississippi State are in very different situations heading into the Longhorns' first SEC matchup.

The Longhorns are at the top of the college football world, ranking No. 1 in the AP Poll for the second straight week and holding one of the best wins in college football thus far: beating now No. 12 Michigan in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are the highest-ranked one-loss team, and the Longhorns are one of just three top-10 teams with an away win against a top-25 opponent: with Utah and Tennessee beating the pair of Oklahoma schools in their building this past week.

Mississippi State, however, is on a very different end of the spectrum. A team with just one double-digit win season this millennium, the Bulldogs have been stuck in power-conference purgatory. The Bulldogs are starting a new era under new head coach Jeff Lebby and will be looking to start their 2024 SEC schedule with a bang.

But it hasn't been easy thus far. The Bulldogs have started the season just 1-3, and are losing by an average score of 16 in its three FBS games this season. The Bulldogs will face four of the current top-six ranked teams this season, and that's not even counting hosting ranked Texas A&M and Missouri. Bowl-game aspirations already feel lofty just four weeks into the season, and outside of a game against Umass, it's unlikely the Bulldogs will be favored in any of the rest of its games this season.

Texas currently stands as 38.5-point favorites, a line one would expect from a mid-major matchup, not the Longhorns' first SEC game. With an injured starting quarterback, a first-year head coach and the power of the DKR crowd behind its back, Texas has everything going for it for its introduction into college football's most powerful conference.

Texas Wins If…

... either side of the running game isn't a problem.

Texas has shown the ability to be elite in nearly every facet of the game so far, but both sides of the running game have still struggled at times throughout the season.

Unfortunately for the Longhorns, the running back room may be the most injured group in all of college football. Presumed starter CJ Baxter and freshman Christian Clark were injured before the year started, but Tre Wisner, third on the team in carries, and backups like Velton Gardner and Colin Page have all hit the injury report ahead of this weekend's game. There's a chance that Jaydon Blue and Jerrick Gibson are the only scholarship backs available to suit up on Saturday, with wide receiver-turned-rusher Ryan Niblett and two walk-ons also open to playing time.

On the other side of the ball, Texas' run defense hasn't been a problem, but it's been something that teams have attacked so far this year. The team's opposing offense rush rate over expected is incredibly high, with its first four opponents running the ball over 10% of the time more than analytics would expect. Texas has stood up to the test against a great running team like Michigan, but with a Mississippi State team that succeeds on the ground and is missing its starting QB, expect the Longhorns to be tested in the trenches.

 Mississippi State Wins If…

... Michael Van Buren Jr. is the future of the program.

It's hard to find one key to a game when a team is expected to lose by over five touchdowns, and it would be hard for even head coach Jeff Lebby to identify a single proponent that could swing the side of this battle.

The closest chance that the Bulldogs might have is held in the hands of true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr., 247Sports' 27th-ranked QB in the 2024 class.

Van Buren will be making his first-ever start in Austin this weekend, and expectations aren't high given his inexperience and Mississippi State's struggles, but he is the X-factor come Saturday. If the freshman truly is the future of the Bulldogs, there is a chance he comes out fast and strong, utilizing Lebby's veer and shoot offense and dicing up the Longhorn defense.

Remember that Dak Prescott, the Bulldogs' best quarterback in recent memory, was also a three-star recruit, and his first-ever SEC start was a near-upset win at Auburn in a year the team went 12-2. Van Buren can't be compared to Prescott just yet, but he is their best chance of pulling off a miracle in Austin.