How High Are Texas Longhorns Playoff Hopes After Win vs. Michigan?

The Longhorns are one of the highest expected seeds in ESPN's 'College Football Playoff Bubble Watch' heading into Week 3

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) and teammates celebrate 31-12 win over Michigan at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, September 7, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

After defeating the Michigan Wolverines in their own home this past weekend, no team in college football feels as popular and as discussed as the Texas Longhorns.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers now stands atop the Heisman odds on many betting sites, the AP Poll has the Longhorns as a top-two team, and Texas looked keen to reach farther than it ever did in 2023 when the Longhorns finished one pass away from a national championship berth.

But even a team that finishes second in AP Poll voting by the end of the season may not be a top seed in the revamped College Football Playoff, now hosting 12 teams across five or more conferences.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian and Texas players celebrate 31-12 win over Michigan at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, September 7, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

In the new system that, for the time being, will become the new normal in an ever-changing sport, the top four ranked conference champions, most likely the four winners of the Power Four championship games, will take up the top four seeds. From there, the 5-11 seeds will be held by the next seven highest-ranked teams, whether it's conference runner-ups or powerhouses who just barely missed the cut for their championship games. Lastly, the final seed will be taken by the highest-ranked conference champion, likely from conferences like the MAC and Mountain West.

Because of this, a team ranked as the No. 2 seed, just like Texas is three months away from the first playoff-game kickoff. It could be ranked in only two spots, but not the ones you'd expect.

In ESPN's current projections, Texas is ranked in one of the only two possible spots: the No. 5 seed. Because Georgia is seen as the top team in college football, at least in the eyes of the AP Poll and ESPN, they would be the No. 1 seed.

But say Texas won the SEC but still was the No. 2 team in the nation? Well, oddly enough, the only spot they could be apart from No. 5 is No. 2, leapfrogging the three and four seeds. If the Longhorns were to hold its spot as the second-best team in the nation, fans could only expect them to be No. 2 or No. 5, just depending on if an SEC team or a different conference winner were ahead of the Longhorns.

In ESPN's article, the Longhorns would play the NIU Huskies, a team who capped off maybe the upset of the year this week as they knocked off No. 5 Notre Dame at home. In this scenario, the Huskies would win the MAC, taking the top spot of all Non-Power Four conference champions and slotting themselves in as the 12 seed. Texas would host the Huskies, with expectations to play No. 4 Oklahoma St., the Big 12 champions, in the next round of the playoff.

For Texas, a spot at the No. 5 seed is almost as good as any, even if it is a lower number than the conference champions. Though the 1-4 seeds get the luxury of a bye, Texas would only have to beat a team of the Huskies caliber, a program that went 5-3 in the MAC last year and features a team with far less talent on either side of the ball.

Then, the Longhorns would face the worst of the Power Four champions, a team like Oklahoma State, Utah or Kansas State, all schools who have struggled against inferior competition. Though competition ramps up from there, one can argue it's easier to face NIU at home, then the B12 champion, than it would be to be stiff off of a bye and face a school like Oregon or Penn State, the current projected eight and nine seeds.

No matter what, the Longhorns are in prime position to succeed in the playoffs as long as it remains a top-five team in the nation, and Texas is firmly near the front of the pack. If the Longhorns can stay the course and at least make an SEC championship appearance, the burnt orange should be smack in the middle of a strong contention spot in the Playoff, exactly where fans expected them heading into the season.