Now or Never: Will Jaydon Blue Take Lead Role in Texas Longhorns Rushing Attack?

With CJ Baxter sidelined for the 2024 season, junior running back Jaydon Blue needs to be everything, and more, for a Texas Longhorns team looking to win a national championship.

April 20, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA: Texas White team running back Jaydon Blue runs the ball in for a touchdown in the Longhorns' spring Orange and White game at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sara Diggins-USA Today Sports via American Statesman / Sara Diggins/USA Today Sports via American-Statesman

With the unfortunate news of sophomore running back CJ Baxter's season-ending knee injury, one man will be expected to step up and become the next star ball carrier in Austin.

Junior Jaydon Blue, the second running back to be recruited and brought into the Steve Sarkisian system at Texas, is where every eye and thought immediately went when the announcement of Baxter's injury came about. One of two returning backs from last year's College Football Playoff team outside of Baxter, Blue's sophomore season was a surprising, and appreciated, addition to the Longhorns offense.

Now, Blue's contribution will no longer be surprising, and expectations have never been loftier in the young career of the Houston native.

Blue was the No. 6 running back in the class of 2022, sandwiched in the middle of a fantastic group of Longhorn backs. In 2020, the top running back in the country joined then-coach Tom Herman's Texas squad. Three years later, Bijan Robinson was one of the few running backs in recent history to be picked top 10 in the NFL draft.

A year later, a lesser-known commitment came to Austin. In Sarkisian's first recruiting class, Jonathon Brooks joined the Longhorns. By his junior year, Brooks was one of the best runners in all of college football and made for back-to-back years where Texas had the first running back taken off the board.

Baxter followed Blue and mostly stole the show, as the Florida native was the No. 1 running back recruit in 2023. With Jerrick Gibson, the No. 3 running back in the 2024 class, rounding out the position, it's easy to see how Blue would be a bit overlooked.

But Blue was not lost in the national media, even before Baxter's injury. Together with the sophomore, Blue and Baxter became one of just two duos to each be selected for the preseason Doak Walker Award watchlist, given to the best running back in the nation. Without Baxter, Blue's chances at the award have greatly shot up, but what can the Longhorn nation actually expect from him?

Texas Longhorns running back Jaydon Blue (23) is pushed tackled near the endzone by Washington linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshio (5) during the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semifinals game at the Caesars Superdome on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

In 2023, Blue ran for 398 yards and three touchdowns on over six yards per carry as the Longhorn's third rushing option. Blue saw the majority of his workload after the injury to Brooks in the TCU game. In the final four games of the season, Blue averaged 90 scrimmage yards per game, including a monstrous performance against Texas Tech and an impactful 184 yards on the ground, in the air, and in the return game. The trademark to the young running backs game is something Sarkisian has brought, and prioritized, since the day he stepped on campus; Speed.

In 2023, Reel Analytics charted every CFB player's top speeds throughout the year. Unsurprisingly, 40-yard dash record-breaking wide receiver and Texas ex-Xavier Worthy led the way, hitting 22.7 MPH against Iowa State. A few players ranked in between the two, but Blue's 22.3 MPH run against Texas Tech was the fastest among all running backs.

Blue was always going to have a role in the 2024 offense, but Baxter was set to take the majority of early down and short-yardage situations. Teams know about Blue's ability in the open, he is the fastest running back in the nation after all, but where he will really be tested comes in two facets; short yardage and workload

Blue saw just three total carries of high leverage between the Oklahoma State and Washington games, the two most important games he had to play in all year. Those numbers are low, but his success rate was high. All three plays came in the Washington game, where he saw two goal-line carries and a 3rd and fourth attempt.

In the first quarter, Blue opened up the Longhorns CFP scoring with a beautiful five-yard run. He showed the vision to make a great cut at the five-yard line, then trucked right through a player to find the endzone. A very successful play for the sophomore.

Fast forward to the fourth quarter, Sarkisian leaned on Blue at the end of a long scoring drive. On a pivotal third and four at Washington's 10, with a stop likely ending any hopes for the then-down 13 Longhorns, Blue took a pitch and broke away from two potential tacklers, gaining the first down. Another successful rush.

In hurry up, the Longhorns looked to punch it in. Blue saw an overly stacked box and wasn't able to fully convert, but he was able to bring the Horns to the one-yard line. One play later, AD Mitchell did the rest.

Blue has shown, though in limited snaps, to be able to win in high-leverage situations. His talent was unquestionable after two full offseasons with running back coach Tashard Choice, and luckily for the entire group, they still have over three weeks to work. Blue's biggest concern will be with his ability to lead a full workload, and Choice will likely work him this offseason to give him the strength and endurance to do so.

Blue won't have to worry about touches in the easier out-of-conference games, and it's unlikely Sark would risk any sort of additional injuries to his only other experienced back. The real tests will come at three different intervals.

Week Two: the Longhorns find themselves in enemy territory, staring down the massive maize crowd in the Big House. Texas will face one of the scariest defensive fronts in the country in Michigan, with likely top-10 pick Mason Graham clogging up the middle. With Wisner (12 carries in 2023) and two freshmen behind him on the depth chart, Blue will need to be able to take north of 20 carries, just like Baxter did as a true freshman against Iowa State in the absence of Brooks. Blue has yet to register more than 10 carries in any game in his first two years in Austin, which leaves many skeptical of his ability to take on the brutality of a full game at running back.

Next, Blue will have the ability to play a few games at 70%, with an easy two-game slate out of conference and the inferior Mississippi State coming to Austin, but after the bye week, Blue will need to come back with a force. In back-to-back weeks, Texas will face Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and Georgia at home, two of the most physical games of the year. By then, Wisner and Gibson will have become more acclimated to the system and taking more carries, but Blue will need to be able to win on the ground against both teams, as each of them sports a solid to elite pass defense.

Lastly, Blue will need to last the season, keeping his energy and endurance high as the season goes on. Texas can not afford to lose another running back before a potential game of the year when Texas travels to College Station to face Texas A&M. A&M will also be extremely physical, and with new head coach Mike Elko instilling a stronger game day culture, Blue will be in for a brutal and taxing final game of the regular season.

But Texas fans, coaches and players alike feel confident in the junior back. Blue has all the talent necessary, and with a hopeful progression in the passing game from quarterback Quinn Ewers, Blue may be able to step up as one of the best running backs in the SEC.

As always with injury and offseason speculation, only time will tell.