SEC Rooting Guide For Texas Longhorns During Bye Week

Who needs to win (or lose) this weekend in the SEC for the Texas Longhorns to have the best odds to make the SEC championship?

Oct 26, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian looks at his play chart against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Texas Longhorns are sitting at 3-1 in SEC play heading into their final bye week of the season. The two teams ahead of them currently are the Georgia Bulldogs at 4-1 and the surging Texas A&M Aggies, who are the only undefeated team left in conference play at 5-0.

And breathing down Texas's neck are the Tennessee Volunteers and the LSU Tigers who are both 3-1 but currently lose the scoring margin tiebreaker to the Longhorns.

So what needs to happen for Texas to have the best chance to be one of the final two in the SEC in Atlanta for the SEC Championship? We'll review the perfect scenario for Texas fans during it's bye week.

No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas:

At the start of the season, Ole Miss was seen as a prominent threat in the SEC to participate in the championship game. After losing to Kentucky and LSU already, they are now on the outside looking in at 2-2 while Arkansas is at 3-2.

For Texas, either scenario can work out in this game, but Texas would rather have Arkansas win this game for the purpose of their resume, not just to make it into the SEC championship. Arkansas is a future opponent and is looking at potentially being ranked with a win against Ole Miss.

Texas has very little strength wins, and not saying by any means it's a guarantee that Texas beats Arkansas on Nov. 16th, but it gives the Longhorns a chance to have another quality victory in a scarce schedule to find them.

Arkansas has little to no chance of going 6-2 to end their SEC play with the game against Ole Miss, Texas, and a road game against Missouri. But Ole Miss has to play Georgia in Oxford later this season as well. Both teams will have a hard time catching Texas in the standings, but Arkansas winning here would help Texas tremendously with their resume and could take out both Ole Miss and Arkansas from their competition for the SEC championship.

Vanderbilt at Auburn:

This one is much easier for Texas fans. With Vanderbilt seen as their best victory right now, it would help for Vanderbilt to win as much as possible. This game has little to no importance for Texas to make the SEC championship with Vandy at 2-2 and Auburn at 1-4. Vanderbilt has Tennessee and a trip to Death Valley against LSU still left, they won't give Texas any concern with a win against Auburn.

Florida vs No. 2 Georgia (Jacksonville, FL):

It's pretty obvious that Texas would love to see the Gators pull off the victory here. Georgia is ranked as a 14.5-point favorite to win and ESPN puts their win probability at 79.8%. If Georgia were to lose, Texas would take over the No. 2 spot in SEC rankings. Florida is at 2-2 and plays Texas, LSU and Ole Miss in addition to Georgia.

With Florida not having any chances, it would be amazing to see them take down Georgia. But Georgia still has Tennessee and Ole Miss on their schedule, which means they will have other chances to lose if they don't on Saturday.

No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina:

The Lone Star Showdown at Kyle Field on Nov. 30th might have huge implications for who plays in the SEC championship. But for now, Texas needs A&M to lose as much as possible. South Carolina has a tough environment and destroyed Oklahoma and almost beat Alabama on the road in their last two games. With South Carolina at 2-3, it would really help for them to steal a victory against Texas A&M and take away some anxiety for Texas fans.

If Texas A&M were to lose this game they would move to 5-1 and will most likely be 6-1 when they play Texas. If the Longhorns are also 6-1 (meaning they stay undefeated for the rest of the season) there is a big chance whoever the winner is will make the trip to Atlanta.

Kentucky at No. 7 Tennessee:

Tennessee is a -17.5 favorite to beat the Wildcats on Saturday to anyone's surprise. Kentucky winning would obviously be the best scenario for Texas. But if Tennessee moves to 4-1 after this game and takes third place over the Longhorns, don't be afraid. Tennessee needs to still play Georgia in Athens, but that's really about it.

This would be Kentucky's second road victory against a top-ten opponent if they do win, however, which should raise some alarms to Texas who play them at DKR later this year. If Kentucky wins, this would almost take Tennessee out of it. They would need to go perfect for the rest of the season to have a chance.

Texas needs to go perfectly as well theoretically to make the championship at this point. The remaining schedule is a home game against Florida, a road game against Arkansas, a home game against Kentucky, and then a road game against Texas A&M.

Only time will tell who will come out on top in the SEC, but Texas can't do anything but watch this weekend as the games play out. But in the meantime they can follow this "rooting guide" to see what will be the best scenario for them heading into next week.

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