State of the Depth Chart: Arch Manning Proves Texas Has Nation's Best QB Room

Quinn Ewers is the starter in Austin, but Arch Manning's elite play against Mississippi State has brought confidence that the Longhorns can win, no matter the QB under center.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks to throw the ball as the Texas Longhorns take on Mississippi State at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With five weeks of Texas football in the background, the Longhorns enter its most pivotal two weeks of game-planning and re-energizing for the rest of the season.

The first five weeks for Texas were fairly easy apart from a signature win in Ann Arbor against now No. 10 Michigan, with the Longhorns facing four other teams combining for a record of 8-10, the majority of which coming from Sun Belt opponent ULM, whom the Longhorns gave their only loss to.

But competition will not return to this easy state once this much-needed bye week concludes. Texas has two weeks to prepare for its most important two weeks: The Red River Rivalry in Dallas against No. 19 Oklahoma, and hosting No. 5 Georgia, a team ready for revenge after a heartbreaking loss in Tuscaloosa this last weekend.

While many players will take this extra week of rest to return to their healthiest form, head coach Steve Sarkisian and the rest of his staff will be busy creating the best game plan, lineups and rotations ahead of two pivotal games, ones that likely decide if Texas is an SEC championship contender, or just another good not great SEC team.

The first position that every team and coach looks toward when the games get the biggest is the quarterback, a position that's no stranger to the spotlight at UT. Starting quarterback Quinn Ewers is expected to be healthy for his first full game since Michigan in week two after suffering an oblique injury against UTSA. Stepping into his spot for the next three games was redshirt freshman Arch Manning, one of the many stories in college football as he received his first chance to shine as the preferred backup to Ewers.

There are still many questions lingering about this quarterback room, but one thing should be made very clear: Ewers is the starter as long as he is healthy.

With that out of the way, it's still important to analyze what Manning did well in Ewers' absence, but also why Ewers is the starter for the time being.

In two full weeks as a starter, Manning had the definition of an up-and-down campaign. Against ULM, Manning struggled mightily, throwing two interceptions and completing just 52% of his passes. The first-start jitters seemed to have gotten to him a bit, as the quarterback looked inaccurate and uncomfortable in the pocket.

Quickly, though, Manning silenced any doubters in the Longhorns' first game in the SEC. Though Mississippi State is far from a powerhouse in the conference, Manning put up an elite performance, throwing for 324 yards and two touchdowns on 26/31 passes, earning Pro Football Focuses' highest grade of the year for a single week at quarterback (outside of Army's Blake Horvath, who's outstanding week four performance on the ground only saw him throw 12 passes).

Manning showcased everything that Texas fans knew he had, using his legs, his strong arm and his ability to escape in the pocket to generate positive yardage, most notably connecting with sophomore wide receiver DeAndre Moore Jr. for two 25+ yard touchdowns, as well as losing over 60 yards on a dropped deep ball to Johntay Cook.

Manning proved a point that Texas fans and journalists have been pushing since Ewers announced his return to the college football world: Texas has the best QB room in the nation. After week 2's win in Ann Arbor, many forget that Ewers turned into the Heisman front-runner. Even when the team loses a quarterback expected to win the Heisman, they can turn to a backup who will put up the best single-week performance of any passer all season.

The big question that many away from the Longhorns still might have, however, is why Manning won't be the starter after this elite performance. Well, instead of just simply pointing to the experience card, there are many stats that can prove why Ewers is the best fit to play in these big games.

There are three things that Ewers excels at, in which Manning has either shown to be a problem or that Ewers' experience has proven to be more important.

Firstly, it has been proven from a playcalling and difficulty standpoint that Sarkisian makes Manning's life easier. When introducing stats about these players, it's important to look at who Ewers has faced and who Manning has. Ewers played against Michigan in Ann Arbor, which was arguably the best win of the year for any quarterback before Jalen Milroe defeated Georgia this weekend. He also consistently played against the freshest group of defenders in each of the other two weeks, as he started the game and only left for injury or because the score was so high.

On the other hand, Arch never had to play against Michigan, and in weeks one and three he only came in after Texas was comfortably ahead, taking all pressure off. Against ULM you could see that playing against the fresher legs, as his first pass was an incompletion and his first drive ended in a bad interception. Manning did play against an SEC opponent, which Ewers hasn't yet, but that doesn't completely make up for the generally easy matchups he had to face.

Now, looking at the way Sarkisian utilizes his quarterbacks in the passing game, one comparison shows one of the main reasons Ewers is preferred in this system.

Arch Manning vs Quinn Ewers stats in play acton and without it /

Manning was amazing on play action plays, especially against ULM, but is much less efficient on plays without. Play actions plays are often used to give the quarterback easier routes and options to throw to, something Sarkisian has made a staple of his offense.

But play action can't be solely relied on in games against elite defenses like Oklahoma and Georgia. Manning goes into play action more, and when he's forced into harder game-script plays he completes 13% fewer passes than Ewers does. Play action is awesome, especially in the earlier, scripted drives, but you can't run play action on 3rd and 10. Manning can get away with a near 50-50 split in that type of playcalling, but as Ewers showed when he perfectly found Isaiah Bond on a 33-yard pass on an uncomfortable 3rd and 13 deep in his own territory.

Another key piece to Ewers' success is his ability to safely move down the field. While Manning has an average depth of target over 4.5 yards more than Ewers, that also comes with double the amount of turnover-worthy throws this season. Manning has also been sacked five times on a 27.8% pressure-to-sack ratio, a really poor percentage for any quarterback at any level. Ewers, on the other hand, has been sacked just twice all year, lowering that percentage by 16%.

To drive the point even further, Manning is a negative player when under pressure. PFF gave him a grade of 93.1/100 with a clean pocket, a number that would put him in the top three of all quarterbacks, but when pressured he is the worst QB in the SEC, sitting at a 41-point grade. In 18 dropbacks under pressure, Manning has completed just five passes, and while three of them went for touchdowns, that's 13 plays that resulted in sacks, incompletions, or small runs.

Ewers, on the other hand, is the nation's second-best passer under pressure, according to PFF. In his 17 attempts, he's completed nine passes, only being sacked twice, and actually becomes a better quarterback when pressures are on or a blitz is coming. That bodes well for their game against Oklahoma, one of the few teams with a better pass rush than the Longhorns on the year. Michigan is PFF's highest-graded team when rushing, and it's obvious that that was no problem for Ewers three weeks ago.

With all this being said, it's important to also understand how blessed this fanbase is to have Manning. Despite his faults, many of which that can be fixed in the offseason, Texas' backup QB had one of the best single-game performances of a QB all year, and his ability to air the ball out is something Ewers doesn't possess.

Still, the team is so good this year that Ewers doesn't need to air it out every play. The win condition becomes more and more obvious as the Red River Rivalry approaches: allow a healthy Quinn to sit back and deliver with the best pass blockers and some of the best receivers in the country by his side.