State Of The Depth Chart: Steve Sarkisian Has Decisions To Make At Running Back

Blue, Wisner or Gibson, who will be the top dog when Texas enters the Cotton Bowl for the Red River Rivalry.

DUPLICATE***Texas Longhorns running back Quintrevion Wisner (26) takes the field before the Texas Longhorns take on Mississippi State at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. / Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As the No. 2 Texas Longhorns enter its bye week in the 2024 season, a lot of things can be celebrated. The Longhorns are 5-0, ranked inside the top two teams in the nation, and feel like they have solved many of the problems on their roster.

The secondary has turned from a problem to one of the best in the nation in just one offseason, both Arch Manning and Quinn Ewers look like they could both be Heisman winners, and Texas' pass rush and overall defense may be the best in the nation.

But one position group, and overall part of the team's offense, has stuck out like a sore thumb as the sole question mark for this Longhorns team. The Longhorns have a top-5 offense in terms of estimated points added (EPA) and EPA/play when passing the ball, but rank in the bottom half of the country in terms of rushing the ball.

Not all of this is the fault of the running back room itself. A pre-season injury to expected starter CJ Baxter hurt the team's ceiling, while freshman Christian Clark's similar injury took out some needed depth in the room. Even with a trio of strong running backs still on the roster, there have been just three games where all three were healthy, as both starting running back Jaydon Blue and preferred backup Quintrevion Wisner missed games after Texas' win in Michigan.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has some decisions to make as he hits this bye week. The Longhorns face two elite defenses in the following two weeks, going up against the run-stuffing No. 19 Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry and hosting No. 4 Georgia in Austin just one week after. The Longhorns will need every position to be at its best for both games, and the running back room is one of the most tricky to maneuver around.

Texas's trio of backs includes Blue, a skilled pass catcher and the veteran of the lineup, Wisner, a high-motor former special teamer hitting a second-year breakout and Jerrick Gibson, a powerful freshman who has made an immediate impact. But all three have some very specific flaws, ones that won't be easy to avoid when throwing them into the lineup against the Sooners.

We’ve only seen three games all season where all three were healthy, but the two most important are the Michigan game in week two and last week’s matchup when diagnosing who will be doing what for this Longhorns team.

In week two, Gibson was the team’s best rusher, leading the running backs in EPA and PFF grade. But Blue was by far the most productive in the passing game, taking two fewer snaps in the passing game than Wisner but still adding four more catches, a touchdown, and superior pass blocking. At that point in the season, it felt like Blue and Gibson were starting to separate themselves into a 1A, 1B situation, with Wisner lagging behind.

With the injuries that struck around the room, with Blue missing week three and Wisner missing week four, the biggest takeaway from these games was Gibson’s inability to truly push the narrative as a lead back. With his main competition gone in both games, Gibson had two good games, running for 107 yards on around 4.8 yards per carry, but he didn’t prove he could elevate himself in the other areas of the game that he’s struggled with.

Gibson was asked to pass block just two times against Louisiana Monroe in Week four, the only two times he has been asked to do so all season. On his first attempt, Gibson is asked to block an edge rusher on play action to buy quarterback Arch Manning time to find a 15-ish yard pass to the endzone. Gibson gets out of the fake handoff awkwardly, plants his feet in a position that invites the edge rusher inside, and allows a pressure that ultimately leads to Manning being hit and missing his target.

His only other snap came later in the third quarter, where Manning got the ball out so quickly that it didn’t much matter what Gibson did. On top of all this, Gibson has been targeted just three times out of the backfield all season, and Sarkisian has been much more hesitant to line him up out wide or in the slot than he is with Wisner and Blue. At this point of Gibson’s career, which mind you is still his true freshman season, Sarkisian and running back coach Tashard Choice can’t afford to have him in on any potential passing downs, which greatly lowers his value and ceiling as a running back in the offense.

In the case of Gibson, he likely is the best pure runner on this team already. He leads the team in PFF rushing grade, EPA/play, and success rate, and leads the team in first down runs. He is really hard to take off the field, but Sarkisian's offense is not built for what the true freshman brings. Sarkisian needs his backs to pass block and run after the catch, something Gibson has yet to learn in college. Gibson should still be the short-yardage and goal-line back for this team, but you just can't run him out on the majority of snaps.

With Gibson’s role likely having a permanent cap on it, Wisner and Blue took almost the entirety of week five snaps, splitting 85 percent of the snaps between the two. Blue had just come off a fantastic performance in week four, registering 124 rushing yards and four total touchdowns. The role almost seemed locked down, but his performance against Mississippi State raised a lot of questions. Six carries, two of them fumbles, and just 2.83 yards after contact.

This led to Blue being taken out of the rest of the game, and whether that was for health concerns or just a straight-up benching, it allowed Wisner to take the rest of the carries throughout the game. Wisner was nothing short of electric, averaging nearly 7 yards per carry for 88 yards, with 5.15 yards coming after contact. Wisner’s most important progression in this game was hitting on his first big run of the season, breaking for a 38-yard rush in the fourth quarter alongside two other runs for 10 or more yards in his 13 total attempts.

So Sarkisian and Choice are stuck at a crossroads. Their most veteran back and best pass catcher has a fumble problem, one that's been around since his high school career. Their freshman running back can't be involved in the passing game, and an inconsistent Wisner has finally hit a true breakout, making it hard to decide between him and Blue.

The easiest answer to this problem is a 45-45-10 split for the running backs, with Wisner and Blue taking the majority of those snaps in a pure committee. But there are many points that do settle in Blue's favor to be the top back. Though Blue's game against Mississippi State was likely the worst RB game of the season, while Wisner's was the best, Blue has been far more consistent game-to-game. In general terms, Wisner is slightly ahead, but both are similar in yards per carry, yards after contact per attempt, and EPA/Rush this season, but Blue pulls away on the more advanced stats and metrics.

Blue has forced over double the missed tackles Wisner has this season and has had more rushes of both 10 and 15 yards. But Blue truly shines as a receiver, clearing Wisner in yards per route run, receiving EPA and total yardage. This is his bread-and-butter and something that Sarkisian loves to use. Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks each eclipsed 280 yards receiving in their final seasons, with Brooks likely passing Robinson at 314 yards if he had stayed healthy. Blue's ceiling in the passing game is immense, as shown by his six catches for 37 yards and a touchdown against Michigan.

Lastly, Blue is the better of the two in pass blocking, and his overall experience makes one believe that Sarkisian will still stick by his junior running back. The most likely scenario is that Texas gives Blue the bulk of the touches, similar to how he had 43 percent of the running back touches against Michigan despite an injury halfway through the game. He is the team's best third-down back but is also someone you want to have out on 1st and 10's the majority of the game. Expect Wisner to work in as a rusher and a change of pace, while Gibson takes on the majority of the expected run downs.

Either way, the Longhorns do have talent in their room. Gibson is already an elite rusher as a freshman, Blue is a threat when quarterback Quinn Ewers drops back and Wisner has been a pleasant surprise that only gets better. Even Ryan Niblett, a receiver turned running back, has put in good shifts when he is needed. Texas does not have a bottom-half rushing group, and the stats overall don't reflect what these players are actually able to do. If Texas' backs can be an above-average group against Oklahoma, the rest of the Longhorn team should be able to take care of business.