Texas vs. Mississippi State Week 5 Preview: Keys to the Game

Two teams with brand new stories heading into 2024, can the Bulldogs upset the Longhorns in Texas' first SEC conference game?

Oct 7, 2023; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Zavion Thomas (1) celebrates with tight end Antonio Harmon (81) and wide receiver Jordan Mosley (18) after a touchdown against the Western Michigan Broncos during the first quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

When the Mississippi State Bulldogs roll into Austin in late September, it will be the battle of two schools in completely different spots.

The Longhorns are the talk of college football, making its first College Football Playoff in 2023 and moving into a new home, the SEC, in 2024. The Longhorns look to become an elite program once more, kicking off with its first conference game against the Bulldogs in Austin.

Mississippi State, however, is on a very different end of the spectrum. A team with just one double-digit win this millennium, the Bulldogs have been stuck in power-conference purgatory. The Bulldogs are starting a new era under new head coach Jeff Lebby and will be looking to start their 2024 SEC schedule with a bang.

The Bulldogs will simply be fighting for bowl contention in 2024, with a schedule featuring SEC games against Florida, Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Missouri. The Bulldogs need an upset to even hope of reaching that six-win mark, usually denoting a bowl game appearance. 

The Bulldogs will not be favored in week five in Austin, but this is no cakewalk for Texas. Here are the keys to the game for both Texas and Mississippi State.

American-Statesman readers had things to say about the salary hike given Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian. (Credit: Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman) / Aaron E. Martinez / USA TODAY NETWORK

Texas Wins If…

… they are who we think they are.

Plain and simple, this Texas team is much better than Mississippi State. Head coach Steve Sarkisian is heading into his fourth year with the program and the Longhorns feature top-10 position groups at every position. A recent NFL mock draft from ESPN’s Matt Miller has three Longhorns in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and quarterback Quinn Ewers will likely be in Heisman contention.

If Texas is the caliber that the fans, the media and the team think they are, it should be a walk in the park against the Bulldogs. Texas will have the home crowd and will be coming off a game against ULM, while Mississippi State will have hoped to survive a week four game against Florida. Texas should walk away with a clean, easy win against the patchwork Bulldogs team in 2024, but anything can happen.

 Mississippi State Wins If…

… their offense reaches another level.

The win condition for this new Mississippi State team is also quite simple. Let their new offensive guru of a coach make strong play calls, and hope that the talent is there to back it up. Mississippi State shouldn’t worry about talent too much, at least not in the receiving core.

Though it is not at the level of the Longhorns, Mississippi State has still reloaded the group that looks to catch passes from transfer QB Blake Shapen. Four transfers were ranked as either high-three or low five-star transfer acquisitions, and the team still carries its two four-star recruit receivers from 2023. Pair that with an experienced quarterback and that is a recipe for success.

This theory does fall short, however, when you look at who they match up against. There is a chance the Bulldog's defense will be better than its offense in 2024, but it has two main competitors looking to stop their success. Firstly, the Texas offense, even with the defense struggling, is still capable of dropping 50 or more points on middle-of-the-road defenses, and the Bulldogs would have to prepare for a shootout if all goes well.

Secondly, Darrel K Royal Memorial Stadium. This place will be loud, especially given that it is the first SEC matchup in school history. Shapen and Lebby will need to be on their A-game with communication, and the new offensive line for Mississippi State will have to hold strong with a crowd as crazy as the over 100,000 strong in Austin. 

The Bulldogs are far from the favorites, but a fun game could definitely be had if Shapen, Lebby and the cast of receivers can blow the top off the Texas defense.