Texas vs. Texas A&M Opponent Preview: Keys to the Game

A potential star in Austin could, and should, be the difference for the Longhorns in one of the hardest places to play in all of America.

Sep 23, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman (15) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports / Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Few rivalries in the college football world have two teams circling the exact same date, no matter how far away it is. Michigan vs Ohio State, Auburn vs Alabama and Army Navy are all a few that come to mind when you think of pure hatred in rivalry. Even with a long-standing Red River Rivalry already having passed, it's hard to expect any game will feature more hatred than this year's Lone Star Showdown, when the Texas Longhorns head east to face Texas A&M in College Station.

The two teams haven't touched the same gridiron since Justin Tucker sent an answered prayer through the uprights in Kyle Field, solidifying Texas as the kings of the rivalry for 13 years. On October 30, 2024, that monarchy may be broken.

The 13 years for both teams have been filled with rocky and odd years in the Big 12 and SEC, respectively. While Apple released 19 phones between the last Lone Star Showdown, Texas and Texas A&M have gone through eight head coaches and five losing seasons, most at the hands of the Longhorns. Texas A&M enters the 2024 matchup with the most change, having brought on former defensive coordinator Mike Elko to become the 30th head coach in the history of the school.

No longer are the days of Sherman or Franchione versus Brown; Elko will face off against Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, an offensive guru and seemingly the face of Texas football for as long as he wants to be. There hasn't been a Texas A&M coach that has commanded more than five Lone Star Showdowns since R.C Slocum retired in 2002, something that Elko would like to break as he works to entrench himself as the future of the program.

Kickoff is over three months away, which makes it hard to have any sort of prediction on what could happen in this game, but it's still important to go over what has transpired so far this offseason. The two schools have had some similarities in their offseasons: They each brought in an elite edge rusher from outside the SEC to sure up their pass rush, both schools have had to make up for the loss of a star middle linebacker, and both schools, unfortunately, had their starting running backs injured in practice, ending their season.

Oddly enough, Texas' CJ Baxter was the No. 1 RB in the class of 2023, while A&M's Rueben Owens was the No. 2 RB. Now, neither player will play in a game they've been waiting for since they got on campus.

Texas Longhorns running back CJ Baxter (4) celebrates a first down during the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semifinals game against the Washington Huskies at the Caesars Superdome on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

These two teams are very evenly matched, especially given environment, but what are the win conditions for each school in arguably its most important matchup of the year?

Texas wins if...

...Quinn Ewers is a Heisman candidate

A lot is resting on the shoulders of the quarterback here in Austin. With Baxter out, and questionable depth at running back, all eyes returned to the most important transfer in Texas football history. The former 1.000-rated recruit has always been seen as a potential star in Austin but has never realized his potential. Injuries, problems with the deep ball, and general inconsistencies have kept Ewers away from the Heisman podium in his underclassmen years in Texas.

But a few things need to be remembered with Ewers. Though it is his fourth year in college, he's really only a junior by age, as he joined Ohio State a year early. Because of his transfer, it almost feels like Ewers started his college career over at Texas, being thrust into the starting role the same age as a true freshman. Ewers, though draft-eligible last year, truly is a junior this year, usually the age when a quarterback really breaks out.

Ewers is third on Draft Kings' Heisman odds, meaning he is favored to at least be in New York for the ceremony later in the year. If this hype is true, and Ewers truly is a top-three quarterback in college football, Texas will win this game.

Sarkisian has made it clear what he likes to do in big games with the passing game: In the eight games that Ewers played in that weren't "big matchups" last year, the quarterback averaged 29 pass attempts per game. That stat is a bit skewed because he left the Houston game early with injury, and was subbed out in games against schools like Rice because of the score, but generally, Ewers throws about 30 times per game.

In the four big games of the year, at Alabama, against Oklahoma, the B12 Championship game and the Sugar Bowl, Ewers threw the ball a whopping 41 teams per game. Twelve more pass attempts than in less important matchups. Sarkisian sticks to his background when the lights are brightest: throwing the ball, and doing it a lot. If his quarterback is a Heisman finalist then Texas' talent will prevail, but Texas A&M has one very obvious strength on their side.

Texas A&M wins if...

... Kyle Field is actually the hardest place to play in the country.

Sophomore linebacker Taurean York made a strong statement about his school and fanbase at the SEC Media Days this offseason. York claimed that Kyle Field was the hardest place to play in the nation, crediting the A&M fans for their ability to make a hostile environment.

If you want a hostile environment, look no further than this game. This matchup isn't just a rivalry on the field. It's a storm of disagreements and hatred between families, friends, co-workers and anyone else who lives in the state of Texas. This matchup is so important to the fans in College Station, and the stadium itself will be louder, more rowdy, and harder to play in than anywhere these players will play in their careers, including at Alabama.

Sixteen of Texas' 45 players on the projected two-deep depth chart are either underclassmen or transferred from non-power five schools. Players like Amari Niblack and Isaiah Bond went to College Station last year as a part of the Alabama Crimson Tide, while players like Jake Majors and David Gbenda have been around long enough to take on this sort of environment. The problem is when you get deeper into the rotation.

Are sophomore and true freshman running backs Tre Wisner and Jerrick Gibson going to be able to work in such a hostile environment? Is a secondary that features a San Jose State transfer and four underclassmen in the 10-man rotation going to be able to keep up with the Aggie receivers who are used to playing at home?

There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Texas team: What will they do at defensive tackle? Is the secondary fixed? What will they do without the four pass catchers who just became NFL players? If these questions aren't answered this late in the season, it could spell disaster for the Longhorns.