What's Next for Texas Longhorns if Star RB CJ Baxter Is Out For Extended Period?

Sophomore running back CJ Baxter's injury status is still up in the air, but the Longhorns need to plan for a future where Baxter can't suit up against teams like Michigan or Oklahoma.

Texas Longhorns running back CJ Baxter during the first day with pads in fall football camp practice for the Texas Longhorns at Denius Fields on Monday, August 5, 2024. / Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

Well... what now?

The Texas Longhorns have hit their first serious roadblock of the offseason. During a Tuesday practice, starting sophomore running back CJ Baxter went down with an injury to his knee. At this point in time, there are no set-in-stone facts about what will happen to Baxter pending an MRI, but knee injuries are something that has plagued the best backs in the NFL, from Todd Gurley to Breece Hall.

Texas will need to create its first Plan B of the year, building a game plan around the 'What If?' of Baxter not being able to play in a few key games.

The Longhorns, luckily, have just one game that feels necessary to have Baxter in for over two months until the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. In a schedule littered with the ULM's and Mississippi State's of the world, the circled game of the out-of-conference schedule was always going to be week two at Michigan.

The defending national champions would be the only game Texas would feel like they NEED Baxter to play in, but pessimistic reports would expect him to miss that crucial out-of-conference game. Playing against a team whose game plan is to dominate the trenches and control the clock, losing your sole bruising running back is a huge loss.

But head coach Steve Sarkisian hasn't brought in three straight top-five recruiting classes to become unprepared for this scenario. In each of the last three classes, Sarkisian has received the commitment of a top 10 back. Freshman Jerrick Gibson was the No. 3 RB in the class of 2024, according to 247Sports, while Baxter was the best RB recruit in the nation last year. Lastly, the assumed next man up Jaydon Blue snuck into the top 10 in 2022.

Texas Longhorns running back Jaydon Blue (23) makes a catch for a first down during the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semifinals game against the Washington Huskies at the Caesars Superdome on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

Blue is the obvious candidate for the largest shift in workload. Baxter and Blue were one of just two running back duos to both receive preseason Doak Walker Award watchlist nominations, and Blue will now have a backfield mostly to himself to start the year.

But this step up would be something new for Blue. When Baxter took over for an injured Jonathon Brooks late in the 2023 season, the freshman received around 14 carries per game in the final five weeks, with an additional two to three touches through the air. Blue, on the other hand, has just four games in his two seasons at Texas with double-digit touches, never eclipsing 10 carries in a game.

Still, Blue was just a sophomore last year, and the junior has the exact mold to become a key contributor for the Horns. In those four games with increased workload, Blue averaged a whopping 6.9 yards per carry, numbers that would've put him third in the Big 12 in efficiency with more volume. Blue is arguably the fastest man on the field at any point in the game, and this offseason the Houston native put on an extra 10 pounds to become better in the intermediate game.

Blue will receive the majority of the carries, and will likely feast behind the ginormous right side of the Texas offensive line, but there will need to be players stepping up lower down in the depth chart if Texas wants to avoid disaster after losing its star runningback. The aforementioned Gibson is where many people will turn to. Sarkisian isn't afraid to give true freshmen touches after Baxter began 2023 as a starting running back, and Gibson fits the mold of what running back coach Tashard Choice loves in a runner.

IMG's Jerrick Gibson (22) is met by Lipscomb's Kris Thompson (9) at Lipscomb's Reese Smith Football Field in Nashville, Tenn., Friday night, Aug. 18, 2023. IMG went on to win the game 35-10. / Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Gibson possesses that breakaway speed that players like Blue and Brooks have, while also being hard to bring down one-on-one. Gibson will take a lot of the outside carries, with Sarkisian hoping to avoid the interior defensive line and give the youngster a chance to beat the undersized defensive backs.

Tre Wisner is another name that will be called on more in 2024. The sophomore was a top 30 RB recruit in 2023 and avoided a redshirt because of his stellar play on special teams. He has taken snaps at running back, mostly against Texas Tech where he scored a 10-yard touchdown alongside 50 other yards on just seven rushes, but profiles as more of a gadget. For Texas fans who have been following for all of Sarkisian's tenure, think of him as this year's Keilan Robinson replacement.

Overall, though, an injury like this puts the most pressure on quarterback Quinn Ewers. Texas will pass the ball more until Baxter is back, and it's hard to see it not becoming the key win condition on Saturdays. In healthy games before Brooks' injury, Ewers averaged around 30 pass attempts per game. After his injury, Ewers threw the ball around six more times per game, including over 40 attempts against both Oklahoma State and Washington to end the year.

The only upside that can be seen from an injury like this is that the crowded Texas pass-catching room will have the ability to show each player's skillsets early. Sarkisian will substitute many of the second and short or first down runs with screen passes to players like Silas Bolden, while someone like DeAndre Moore may get more run out of the slot if Sark prefers to use Gibson on tosses and stretches.

Thankfully for Texas fans, it sounds like Baxter will not miss the entire season, unlike Brooks who's torn ACL ended his contributions to the Big 12 title and CFP runs. Sarkisian has worked over the last four years to build depth on the offensive side of the ball, and the success of his efforts looks to be shown off sooner than expected.

Texas has around 12 players on the offensive side of the ball who deserve targets and touches after Baxter, and an injury like this shouldn't keep Texas away from winning big games against teams like Michigan or Oklahoma.

If Baxter were to be out for longer than that, specifically against Georgia, then the Longhorns may be in trouble. But for now, Sarkisian and the rest of the offensive staff have one month to figure out the plan without Baxter, and hopefully bring the offense back to how it looked in week two last year against Alabama.