Where Could Texas End Up in First-Ever 12-Team College Football Playoff?

An On3 executive outlines his predictions for the 2024 CFB season, with Texas right in the thick of the action.

Texas Longhorns wide receivers Adonai Mitchell (5) and Xavier Worthy (1) celebrate a touchdown by Mitchell during the Big 12 Championship game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at AT&T stadium on Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023 in Arlington. / Aaron E. Martinez / USA TODAY NETWORK

In a recently projected College Football Playoff bracket, On3’s Andy Staples has placed Texas as the seventh seed in the playoff.

Before Texas fans grab their torches and pitchforks, Staples explained his process in an attached article for why the Longhorns are ranked outside the top five. 

Staples ranked Texas as the No. 5 team in the nation heading into the season, a little bit lower than the industry average but nothing to scoff at. Staples then outlined how seeding could fill out given his rankings, which had Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, and Oregon ahead of the Longhorns.

In Staples’ example, Texas would still end as the fifth-best team in the nation, but the ACC and B12 conference champions would leapfrog Texas in seeding. In the new playoff model, the four power conference winners are granted a first-round bye, as well as the top four seeds in the nation. In this example, Florida State and Kansas State won their respective conferences.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) celebrates the 34-24 win over Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Sep. 9, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman /

With Alabama and Oregon staying ahead of Texas in Staples’ model, and Ohio State and Georgia winning the Big 10 and SEC, Texas gets slotted at the unfortunate seven seed.

The positives? Texas would host the playoff game at Darrell K Royal Stadium, making the first round much easier. 

The negatives? Texas would have to play Ole Miss, then get through Georgia for the second time this season, all for the chance at the national title game. 

Staples predicted Ole Miss as the No. 10 seed but has them as his No. 9 team heading into the year. Georgia would be the No. 2 seed and would play the winner of the game.

Overall, Texas’ best chances of winning the College Football Playoff either come from winning the SEC, a tall task to ask in the team’s first year, or ending as the No. 1 at-large team. All conference champions get a bye in round one, giving them the inherent rest advantage over the banged-up lower seeds. The best at-large team is also in a fantastic position, and can be argued to have the easiest path.

The No. 5 overall seed would just miss the bye, but its two games before the final would likely be the easiest. In Staples's example, No. 5 Alabama would host Boise State, then play Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Staples had Kansas State as his tenth-best team in the nation heading into the year, so the No. 5 seed could see a non-Power 4 school and a team that is barely top 10 in the nation. The best-case scenario for a team like Texas would be to either win the SEC, or draw a schedule of the best Group of 5 teams, and the worst conference champion before heading to the finals.

For Texas to accomplish that, they’ll likely need to win all but one game this year. The fifth seed in the nation has been different each of the last few years, with undefeated Florida State being left out of the playoff last year as the most recent example. The years before saw two two-loss teams and two one-loss teams barely making it.

To be safe, Texas would need to either only drop the SEC championship game, or lose to the SEC champion in the regular season, whether that be Georgia or even rivals Oklahoma or Texas A&M. The easiest path is to go undefeated, but even with a singular loss in the regular season, Texas could still be put in one of the best seeds in the playoff.