Who's Hot and Who's Not? Previewing Texas Regional and What Needs to Improve for Longhorns

Will Head Coach David Pierce figure out the starting pitching, and can Porter Brown reclaim the magic that was the 2023 Texas Longhorns Post Season?

Texas Head Coach David Pierce heads for the dugout ahead of the Longhorns' game against the Kansas Jayhawks, Thursday, May 16, 2024 at UFCU Disch-Falk Field in Austin. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA

In what most would call a rocky season, the 2024 Texas Longhorns baseball team has still found its way into playoff baseball with hopes of getting hot at the right time. The Longhorns are headed to College Station for the Texas A&M hosted regional to face familiar faces as the No. 3 seed in the bracket.

Texas’ abrupt end to the Big 12 tournament likely was the difference between a No. 2 and No. 3 seed in the regionals portion of the postseason, which means they will travel to a familiar place, the home of past and present rivals Texas A&M. The Longhorns will first Louisiana, a team they beat 4-2 in last year’s Coral Gables regional to kick-off a postseason run for Texas. First pitch for the Texas vs. Louisiana matchup, Part Two, will be at 5 P.M on Friday night with a date matchup versus either A&M or No. 4 seed Grambling the next day.

Texas struggled in the B12 tournament, dropping a game to Texas Tech and Cincinnati, but has won six of its last 10 and hadn’t seen two straight losses in the regular season since the beginning of the TCU series in mid-April. The lineup for the Longhorns has mostly stayed the same in the last few months, but a few players have managed to separate from the pack, whether for the better or the worse.

When discussing who’s hot and who’s not for the Longhorns, one must start with Big 12 Player of the Year Max Belyeu. The sophomore leads the team in hits, RBIs, batting average, and extra-base hits over the team’s last 10 games and has continued his streak as the best player in the Big 12. Belyeu’s stable bat, striking out less than 25% of the time in his last 10, will have to be on display to get past the powerhouse Texas A&M team who were ranked third in the nation after regional seeding. 

Texas Longhorns outfielder Max Belyeu (44) celebrates with his teammate in the third inning of the Longhorns' game against the UT Arlington Mavericks at UFCU Disch-Falk Field, Tuesday, April 23, 2024. Rodriguez is acting head coach while David Pierce is suspended. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA

Two more staples on each side of the ball have impressed recently as well. Sophomore shortstop Jalin Flores continues to hit well, only trailing Belyeu in categories like RBI and XBH’s while hitting above .300. Flores has truly broken out in the back half of his second season and the power he brings to the two spot cannot be overstated. On the pitching side, sophomore Max Grubbs has been the sole bright spot in the pitching rotation as of late. Grubbs has a sub-3 ERA with 18 strikeouts in his last five starts and seems to be the only starter who can remain consistent throughout the entire season. 

The biggest surprise in the last quarter of the season for Texas has been senior infielder Jack O’Dowd. O’Dowd was benched for the majority of the season after being a consistent starter in 2023, but has come into his own in the last 10 games. O’Dowd is hitting .316 in his last 19 at-bats and has one of the lowest K%’s on the team, something the lefty has struggled with his whole career. If O’Dowd can limit the strikeouts and get on base at the end of the order, the Longhorns suddenly look much deeper.

The last major surprise for head coach David Pierce’s team has been the strength of the bullpen. In the last 53+ innings pitched by the bullpen combination of Gage Boehm, Andre Duplantier II, Cade O'Hara, Charlie Hurley and Easton Tumis, the relievers have an ERA of just 2.85 and have an impressive 8.72 K/9 and 1.16 WHIP. Boehm especially has stepped up in the closer role this year, pitching 12 innings in his last five appearances and giving up just four runs during that time. The bullpen has always been the problem for the Pierce-led Longhorns, but turning that around could be the difference between a regional loss and a super regional appearance.

Not everyone on the Horns, however, has been firing on all cylinders. The starting rotation is by far the biggest concern for Pierce and the Texas faithful ahead of the postseason. Lebarron Johnson Jr, a preseason B12 Pitcher of the Year favorite, has been abysmal in his last five appearances. Johnson is giving up nearly two base runners per inning and has an ugly 8.05 ERA in 19 innings pitched, only lasting past the fifth inning in one of his appearances. Johnson needs to figure it out quickly, or Pierce may be forced to look to Hurley or the flawed sophomore Cody Howard to step up as the third starter.

Johnson isn’t the only starter struggling, either. After Grubbs, junior Ace Whitehead has been the closest to a consistent starter Pierce has, but recently it has not been clicking for the southpaw. A nearly 7 ERA in his last 17 innings pitched with extremely low strikeout rates, ‘Boogie’ needs to limit the fly ball and be able to work through five low-damage innings if Texas has any chance to beat a team like Texas A&M. 

On the batting side, a mix of youth and veteran leadership have struggled. Both freshman Will Gasparino and Dee Kennedy took over as starters throughout the season, a major accomplishment in their first seasons at Texas, but have recently struggled to stay on the field. Gasparino is batting just .184 in his last 38 at-bats and leads the team in strikeouts during that time.

Gasparino is still a plus defender in the outfield and is showing his ability to hit the ball hard, but the freshman needs to be disciplined enough to take his walks and get on base more. Kennedy has almost been entirely replaced by O’Dowd at this point in the season after looking to have secured the job earlier in the year. Kennedy still brings elite speed off the bench, but a .125 batting average and a strikeout every other at-bat in his last 10 games is just unplayable in the postseason.

In the final outfield spot, Pierce has to be disappointed with the overall production of Porter Brown. Last year’s postseason hero will surely keep his starting spot because of his experience and clutch factor, but Brown has regressed a lot more than the average super-senior usually does. Brown has dropped over 100 batting average points compared to last season and has hit 11 fewer XBH’s compared to last year. In his last 10 games, he hasn’t been regressing, but he’s batting at around a .217 average which can’t cut it from one of Texas’ most important players. 

Texas will need to figure out what to do with starting pitching, but the lineup seems set and the bullpen looks the best it has in two years. Can the Horns pull off another scrappy run and make a play at winning the regional? Definitely, but this current Texas team looks far inferior to the red-hot Aggies, and beating Louisiana on Friday is the first step to becoming a team not to be trifled with in the postseason.