Why Longhorns Commit Arch Manning's No. 10 SI99 Ranking Is So Polarizing

The Longhorns prized commit is ranked No. 10 for Sports Illustrated, eight spots lower than any other recruiting service.

The Texas Longhorns landed a commitment from the most prized prospect in the modern recruiting era this June when quarterback Arch Manning made his pledge to Steve Sarkisian. 

It was a commitment that not only gave the Horns their quarterback of the future but was the catalyst of a historic recruiting run in the ensuing weeks. 

Since then, Texas has shot up the boards and holds a unanimous top-5 class. 

In many cases, that is helped greatly by Manning's rating by the individual, three of which (Rivals, On3 and 247Sports) have him as the No. 1 overall player in the class regardless of position.

While another, ESPN, has Manning as the No. 2 overall player and No. 2 quarterback behind USC commit Malachi Nelson.

Then there are Sports Illustrated's rankings - the primary rankings used by LonghornsCountry.com the Sports Illustrated/Fan Nation network - which has Manning ranked far lower than any other service as the No. 10 overall player and the No. 5 quarterback. 

Hardly a meteoric fall, but one that is justified by logic and objectivity rather than politics, name recognition or clicks.

On the surface, the ranking may seem like a slight to Manning, particularly to those unfamiliar with the Sports Illustrated formula. 

However, these rankings have less to do with Manning and more with the four quarterbacks ahead of him earning their higher spots. 

And no, it has nothing to do with where he committed. Whether he had committed to Texas, Alabama, Georgia or Slippery Rock University, Manning's SI99 ranking would have remained the same. 

In fact, Sports Illustrated recently released an article explaining their most polarizing rankings, with the justification for Manning's grade of course leading the way. 

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Arch Manning is overrated. My initial response to the popular perception, especially since he committed to Texas over the last two national champions, is ‘how could he not be?’ There isn’t a high enough ranking for the phenom recruit to justify the type of expectations programs and people have put on the teenager, so any movement surrounding his name or ranking becomes a ‘hot take.’

The beauty in SI debuting its rankings ahead of these prospects’ senior seasons is to allow that initial feel to quell. We don’t rank right after the junior season to allow for more tape to get put together and/or circulate. We don’t do it in the spring because we’re still getting important in-person impressions on players who shined the season prior, much like college coaches during their allotted time on the road. We don’t go early summer, either, so that camps and other offseason events don’t sway the thinking right before placing numbers next to names. 

Instead it rolls out in the preseason so all data points can be weighed as necessary. This was especially critical for Manning, who doesn’t compete in events outside of his New Orleans (La.) Isidore Newman schedule. It means no Elite 11, club 7-on-7s, Under Armour circuit or anything else. His offseason was spring ball at Newman, in which SI attended, and team college camps thereafter, most notably right down the road at LSU. Of course, we have seen Manning at work for years prior, quite literally, since he has become such a traffic driver in the football world. With that foundation, he debuted in the top 10 overall, though fifth among passers. 

The truth is that no one has seen enough of Manning on the field or in camps against high-level competition to justify his other-worldly expectations. 

Whereas Dante Moore, Nico Iamaleava, Jaden Rashada and Malachi Nelson have all gone head first into the fire in one way or another. 

After a historical state title run his junior season, Moore dominated the camp scene this offseason. Iamaleava has arguably the best physical tools of any quarterback in the last decade and out-threw just about everyone this summer in camp settings. 

Rashada and Nelson meanwhile play at the highest levels of California high school football and have done nothing but dominate on those levels of competition and be wildly impressive in camps and national 7-on-7 tournaments. 

Outside of Isidore Newman's low-level competition, Manning did not participate in any offseason camps or national competitions, making it nearly impossible to truly compare him against the best of the best. 

That is not to say that Manning is still an elite quarterback talent. He likely has the highest floor of any quarterback in the class and was seriously considered for the No. 1 spot even without the offseason work in the camp scene.

That said, Even if we had seen him playing in 6A Texas High School Football and competing in the Elite 11 camp settings, the expectations that have come along with his recruitment likely still would have been too high for any quarterback. 

Manning will have to deal with that throughout his football career thanks to his family name. 

Luckily for Manning, there is plenty of time to ascend up the rankings. Even all the way up to the No. 1 overall spot, with Sports Illustrated set to re-evaluate their rankings towards the end of the fall after the class has had a full season of work on the field.

As the Newman offense opens up, schematically, 2022 could be Manning’s most productive season yet. Throw in true physical growth, as he is sitting at about 220 pounds right now, and the thought of a handful of passers being ranked higher come January in the postseason SI99 seems relatively unlikely.

Until then, all Manning can do is put in the work and impress on the field and not let the outside noise and expectations surrounding him get in the way. 

That could be difficult with Manning set to appear on national television multiple times this season. 

Then again, maybe that is exactly the kind of media exposure he needs ahead of his arrival to the 40 Acres next spring. 

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You can follow Matt Galatzan on Twitter @MattGalatzan

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