Playoff Signs: It Just Means More SEC Teams. Again.

Messy Big 12, delayed Big Ten & Pac-12 point to two SEC teams in playoff.

Just about everywhere you look, conferences are staring at College Football Playoff roadblocks.

The Big 12 is down to one unbeaten, Oklahoma State. Perennial powers Oklahoma and Texas are looking so downright messy that this week’s Red River Rivalry is more of a train wreck than a showdown. The big game now is Iowa State at Oklahoma State on Oct. 24.

The buzz in the Big 12 heartland is not that the Cowboys are up. It’s that the Big 12 is down.

The American Athletic’s intriguing (and once-lengthy) set of contenders to push through the Group of Five’s pigskin ceiling has been pared down to two, SMU and Cincinnati. Because two of the AAC’s most glamorous teams, UCF and Memphis, were beaten Saturday. And glamor is necessary for a Group of Five to make an unprecedented playoff appearance.

After Cincinnati travels to SMU on Oct. 24, only one AAC playoff contender will remain standing.

The Pac-12 is being dismissed out of hand because it will only play a seven-game schedule.

The Big Ten is going to walk an eight-games-in-eight-weeks tightrope before its championship game. Its pandemic-safety-first late start puts its at risk for cancellations that could diminish its playoff resumes to Pac-12-like brevity.

Even in the ACC, which Clemson has ruled for years with an iron fist, the Tigers face more threats to their invincible image. Miami, which goes to Death Valley on Saturday, appears to have its best team in ages. ACC one-and-done member Notre Dame, which welcomes Clemson to South Bend on Nov. 7, looks fully equipped this fall. If the Tigers stumble, could their conqueror cope with the pressure that accompanies that success?

Much improved North Carolina could be an obstacle in the ACC championship game. And the ACC’s improved depth leaves a number of teams lurking—the kind of teams that can sneak up on Clemson the way Syracuse did in 2017. Teams like Boston College, Pitt and Virginia Tech.

So who does that leave, holding a ton of cards and wearing a poker face?

Yup, the rich-get-richer Southeastern Conference—which is well-positioned to land two teams in the playoff for the second time in four years.

In this week’s polls, Alabama, Georgia and Florida are one-two-three behind top-ranked Clemson.

Conventional wisdom says even the mighty SEC could never land three teams in the four-team playoff. But we all know what college football says about conventional wisdom.

Georgia plays at Alabama on Oct. 17 in what looks like the best matchup of this regular season. Anywhere on the planet.

The best SEC scenario? Georgia beats the Crimson Tide and loses to Florida on Nov. 7. The Gators then lose the SEC championship game to Alabama,

That gives the SEC three one-loss teams that would do well in the resume game with any one-loss team in the nation.

And for all the quality depth the SEC has, its best teams have been able to rise above the upset disasters that have often dogged the Big Ten and the Pac-12.

If you’re not excited by the thought of another CFP with two SEC teams, how would you feel about three?

Alabama, Georgia and Florida all look playoff-worthy to this point.

That said, the chances of an SEC troika are remote. But two SEC teams in the playoff is looking like a very real possibility. Actually, the most likely scenario.

PLAYOFF ODDS. AND ENDS.

Here are some “odds to win the College Football Playoff’’ that I received Monday from betonline.ag/

I would never bet on this. But while these odds are interesting from a comparative standpoint, they look low to me from a betting standpoint. The risk/reward is not there.

Think about all the hurdles to winning the national championship—what your reward should be for picking that winner in early October. I would want more than 2/1 for Clemson. Heaven forbid, but what if Trevor Lawrence has an issue?  Ohio State (11/4) and Alabama (13/4) are similarly un-tempting.

At least Georgia (12/1), Florida (14/1) and Penn State (28/1) have enticing odds. But still. . . 

Nor do I understand why Oklahoma is still on the board with two losses. Something that wildly remote is a much bigger longshot than 66/1 in my mind.

That said, here you go. And no, I didn’t bother with the whole list, which includes things like Duke, Syracuse, Illinois and Kansas at 1,000/1. Although that would make an interesting basketball Final Four.

Odds to Win the College Football Playoff

Clemson 2/1

Ohio State 11/4

Alabama 13/4

Georgia 12/1

Florida 14/1

Penn State 28/1

Oregon 33/1

Michigan 40/1

Notre Dame 40/1

Wisconsin 40/1

USC 50/1

Miami (FL) 66/1

Oklahoma 66/1

Texas 66/1

Washington 80/1

Auburn 100/1

LSU 100/1

Minnesota 100/1

Mississippi State 100/1

North Carolina 100/1

Oklahoma State 100/1

Tennessee 100/1

Texas A&M 100/1

UCF 100/1