A Jersey Guy: CFP Calm or Chaos

Consider the 2023 college football season in the context of a Florida gulf coast resort town on Labor Day weekend, the last blast of summer

But lurking in the Gulf of Mexico is a Category 5 hurricane which has yet to display a directional pattern.  If it turns right it will create havoc for the entire gulf coast, if it moves to the right it will be nothing more than some wind gusts and a few splashes of rain.

 As championship weekend commences on Friday night with Oregon and Washington clashing in Las Vegas for the Pac-12 title, there are two paths the games could follow.

One would be relatively tranquil, with some grumbling about a a 4-team playoff system which concludes its business this season before giving way to next season's more inclusive 12-team format.

The other, however, could very well create havoc with the season and the system.

Tranquility base

This one is easy,

No. 1 Georgia continues its two season winning streak and beats Alabama in the SEC title game in Atlanta on Saturday night

Thati would put the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs in a CFP semifinal in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans on January 1 against a No. 4 seeded team such as FSU or Texas or Ohio State

No 2 Michigan must take care of Iowa--the Wolverines are a 21 poiint favorite--in the  Big Ten title game on Saturday night.

The winner of No. 3 Washington vs. No. 5 Oregon  will face the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl in the other CFP Jan. 1 semifinal.

A Georgia win could also set the stage for a "perfect''  Final Four of 1. Georgia (13-0), No. 2 Michigan (13-0), No. 3 Washington (13-0) and No 4 FSU (13-0).

Chaos 

Alabama beats Georgia.

Whoops

Scenario 1

Alabama would like to move into the Final Four as a once beaten SEC champion, which has just beaten the No. 1 team in the country and went unbeaten through ab SEC season.

But Alabama has one loss-to Texas, in Tuscaloosa, 34-24..

If Texas beats Oklahoma State-Texas is a two TD favorite-in the Big 12 title game, there seems little chance of Alabama getting into the Final Four instead of Texas.beats

Both could be invited, which would create other problems.

A bigger issue will be if Alabama  but Michigan beats Iowa, beats  Washington beats Oregon and FSU beats Louisville. That's three unbeaten, conference champions, plus....Alabama?

Nope, Texas, which means no SEC.

Blasphemy says SEC loyalists.

Ok. Take Alabama and Texas and ...leave out an unbeaten conference champion?

There are several  other scenarios which could occur with a Georgia loss, none of them clean.

Suffice it to say, that a Georgia victory would make things a whole lot calmer after the games this weekend  the CFP folks.