A Jersey Guy: CFB 2022 in a state of flux

No guarantees of any kind in CFB this season.

The start of the 2022 college football season will unofficially begin on Tuesday, when the mighty Southeastern Conference begins its spring meetings and sets the agenda for the rest of college football.
   You can laugh at that statement but let's get real here.

The SEC has the fan base, it has the most talent, it has the leadership. 

This isn't necessarily what's best for college football, but the harsh reality (to some) is what's best for the SEC is also BEST for college football.

Which is why Commissioner Greg Sankey's annual state of the SEC message in Destin, Fl at least provide a direction for the 2022 college football season, which remains a mystery in many areas.

Let's start with the potential CFP contenders--again loaded with SEC talent, including reigning national champion Georgia, and always around Alabama, as well as the newly minted recruiting leader, Texas A&M

But we have the added factor of the transfer portal, which is allowing coaches to lock and load talent as needed.

  Does anyone really know what magic Lincoln Riley, last seen making a quick and somewhat unexpected departure from Oklahoma to USC, can create?

    Could the Trojans be this season's Michigan, remerging  as a CFP contender?

Can Miami revive the magic with Mario Cristobal returning to his alma mater?.

The transfer portal is allowing coaches in football and basketball to build prospects on the fly.

Want another sleeper? 

Keer your eye on Nebraska.

Then there is the matter of conference realignment.

Sankey will provide some clarity on the timeline of when Texas and Oklahoma will join the SEC, making it a 16-team monster that will be big enough and talented enough to conduct it's own playoff

Once that happens, the Big 12 will readjust with its new additions and the other conferences will also make their changes.

With all that in place, look for a growing trend of non-divisions in standings, which will make it easier to match the two best teams in conference championship games.

This will all take some time, but the word "upset'' might have to be re-defined this season.

The issue of Names, Image and Licensing will be more difficult to contain to the point where we won't have coaches sniping at each other.

The first log jam which must be broken is the cluster of teams changing conferences in the American Athletic Conference and Big 12.

AAC commissioner Mike Aresco hinted last week that a settlement exit fee from UCF, Cincinnati and Houston was close to being done.

The AAC can then add the schools it poached from Conference USA/

Once that is settled, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, as well as BYU. can move into the Big 12--perhaps as soon as the 2023 season.

The Big 12 must then make deals with Texas and Oklahoma and allow them to leave sooner (2023) rather than later.

If that happens, the FBS conferences can figure out the kind of playoff system, they want, presumably being confident there will be no more raids or defections.

All of that could be in place by September of 2023, which should re-store some semblance of order.

But until someone makes the first move, chaos and uncertainty will prevail.

Count on the SEC to make that move and the other 4 Power conferences to follow.

And should all start this week.