Mr. CFB Pick 6: Week 13

The SEC championship game is set, but first Georgia and Alabama each have to take care of a state rival. Both games are on the road.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.

Many years ago the SEC determined that the Saturday before the SEC championship game would be "Rivalry Week" for every member of the conference. And if you didn't have one, the SEC would create one for you, hence Missouri vs. Arkansas and Texas A&M vs. LSU.

Rivalry week in the SEC is fun but can be inconvenient for schools like  Georgia and Alabama, who play Georgia Tech and Auburn respectively on Saturday but meet each other on Dec. 2 for the SEC championship. Both are seriously in the College Football Playoff discussion and simply cannot afford to lose.

Last week we posted a 4-2 record against the spread, which puts us over .500 the first time since September.

Here we go.

Missouri (9-2) at Arkansas (4-7) (getting 7.5): Logic says to take Mizzou. The Tigers have been playing well, including a late field goal win over Florida last Saturday. But the Hogs got some good news this week when the school announced that Coach Sam Pittman would be back  for next season. I say that news, plus the 7.5 points, is enough to give Arkansas the upset. I'll take the Hogs and the points.

Kentucky (6-5) at Louisville (10-1 (giving 7.5)  It has been a disappointing year at Kentucky, which has lost five of its last six games since starting 5-0.  The Wildcats would like nothing better than to beat their state rival, which is headed to the ACC championship game  to play Florida State. Louisville believes it is in the CFP picture if it beats Kentucky and Florida State. I'm going to take Louisville and give the 7.5.

Texas A&M (7-4) at LSU (8-3) (giving 10.5) This will be Chapter 12 of the Jayden Daniels Heisman Trophy march. He accounted for eight--that's right--eight touchdowns against Georgia State.  In the past two weeks Daniels has accounted for 1,115 yards and 13 touchdowns. But keep this in mind: Texas A&M is No. 3 in the SEC in scoring defense giving up only 19.5 points per game.

Alabama (10-1) (giving 14.5) at Auburun (6-5): This much we know. Auburn will play better in the Iron Bowl than it did against New Mexico State, which dominated and embarrassed the Tigers 31-10. Auburn can't possibly play worse.  I've seen a lot of strange things happen in this game, especially when it's at Jordan-Hare. I just can't see an upset. So let's just say that Alabama is looking ahead to Georgia. The Tide wins but doesn't cover 14.5

Florida State (11-0) at Florida (5-6) (getting 6.5.) This is the most significant game on the board for Saturday. And here's why. If Florida upsets Florida State, it all but eliminates the Seminoles from the College Football Playoffs. That opens the door for a number of one-loss teams. One of those could be Georgia if the Bulldogs lose to Alabama in the SEC championship game. Florida State will be without starting quarterback Jordan Travis, who was lost for the season with an awful leg injury against North Alabama. Tate Rodemaker will get the start. I really wonder about the mood of Florida State, even in a rivalry game, with Louisville coming up in the ACC championship game. Still, I'll take Florida State and give the points.

Georgia (11-0) at Georgia Tech (6-5) (getting 23.5): Right now nobody is playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs, the two-time defending national champions. Georgia certainly could be distracted with Alabama coming up in the SEC championship game next week. And covering 23.5 on the road could problematic for most teams. But Georgia isn't most teams as their offense is playing like a well-oiled machine. I'll take the Bulldogs and give the 23.5  points.