Mr. CFB Pick Six: Week 4

Can Auburn go to Georgia and win? Can Texas A&M keep it respectable at Alabama? What will K.J. Costello do at home in Starkville"?

Last Saturday was Exhibit A of why I could never pick college football games for a living:

**--Alabama, a 27-point favorite, led 35-3 in the third quarter and was headed to Mega-Blowout City. Then the Crimson Tide look their foot of the gas and won by 19, 38-19.

**--I took the 3.5 points and picked South Carolina to win straight up at home over Tennessee. Down 31-24 the Gamecocks drove deep into Tennessee territory. Instead of going for the touchdown and tie, Will Muschamp kicked a 45-yard field goal with 3:43 left to bring South Carolina to within four, 31-27. South Carolina didn’t get the ball back because of a special teams error.

I thought Ole Miss could stay closer than the 13.5 points at home against Florida. But the Gators won by 16.

I thought Kentucky plus the 7.5 against Auburn would be good enough. Auburn won by 16.

The only game I got right was Georgia covering the 26.5 against Arkansas. The Bulldogs won by 27. Whew!!!

Put all together and it was a crowd-pleasing 1-5. After three weeks we are 8-10 ATS.

We’ll try to do better this week:

The game: Auburn (1-0) (plus 6.5) at Georgia (1-0), 7:30 p.m., ESPN

The pick: Georgia

The score: Georgia 27, Auburn 20.

The skinny: The X-factor for Georgia will be quarterback play. Former walk-on Stetson Bennett IV came off the bench last Saturday to lead the Bulldogs to a 37-10 win at Arkansas. Bennett is expected to get the start against Auburn, which beat Kentucky 28-19 last week. What we don’t know is whether or not USC transfer JT Daniels will see his first action for Georgia. The Bulldogs have won eight of their last 10 meetings with Auburn.

The game: Texas A&M (1-0), (plus 17.5) at Alabama (1-0), 3:30 p.m., CBS.

The pick: Alabama

The score: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 17.

The skinny: Alabama jumped out to a 35-3 lead last week at Missouri but then the Crimson Tide cruised home to win by 19, 38-19. The line was 27. Quarterback Mac Jones had an efficient 18 of 24 for 249 yards. Freshman quarterback Bryce Young threw eight passes. It will be interesting to see how much the Crimson Tide uses Young against the Aggies, who did not look good in beating Vanderbilt 17-12. Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher needs for his Aggies to beat the 17.5 spread and make this a competitive game. The natives in College Station are starting to get restless.

The game: Ole Miss (0-1) (plus 6.5) at Kentucky (1-0), 4 p.m., SEC Network

The pick: Kentucky

The score: Kentucky 35, Ole Miss 28

The skinny: Kentucky has one of the more underappreciated defenses in the SEC. The Wildcats only gave up 323 yards in a 29-13 loss to Auburn in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. Kentucky was 14th nationally in scoring defense last season and 7 of the top nine tacklers return. Kentucky is going to run the ball and keep it away from an Ole Miss offense which racked up more than 600 total yards in a 51-35 loss to Florida.

The game: South Carolina (0-1) (plus 18.5) at Florida (1-0), Noon, ESPN.

The pick: Florida.

The score: Florida 38, South Carolina 17.

The skinny: Part of me thinks that Will Muschamp’s South Carolina team will bounce back and play well in The Swamp, where he used to be employed. I was tempted to pick Florida to win but not cover. But I just can’t forget that Florida quarterback Kyle Trask threw for 416 yards and six touchdowns last week while the Gators were rolling up over 600 yards against Ole Miss. Gators win AND cover.

The game: Missouri (0-1) (plus 11.5) at Tennessee (1-0), Noon, SEC Network.

The pick: Tennessee.

The score: Tennessee 28, Missouri 14.

The skinny: After last week’s 31-27 win at South Carolina, Tennessee brings a seven-game winning streak into its home opener. Now that LSU has lost, the Volunteers’ streak is the second-longest in college football (behind Notre Dame and BYU at 8). Missouri fell behind Alabama 35-3 but made it a decent game, losing 38-19. If quarterback Jarrett Guarantano doesn’t turn the ball over, Tennessee wins and covers the 11.5.

The game: Arkansas (0-1) (plus 17.5) at Mississippi State (1-0), SEC Network Alternate.

The pick: Mississippi State.

The score: Mississippi State 42, Arkansas 24.

The skinny: Mississippi State plays its first home game after last week’s 44-34 stunner at LSU where transfer quarterback K.J. Costello threw for an SEC-record 623 yards. Arkansas did a good job defensively against Georgia for a half last week. Let’s see if they can keep it closer than the experts think. Mississippi State wins and covers the 17.5.