What Makes Tulane’s 2024 Season a Success?
Expectations for Tulane football have changed significantly in just the last three seasons, after going from 2-10 in 2021 to 12-2 in 2022 and 11-3 last season. The expectation for Tulane is no longer winning six games to make a bowl appearance. But what is?
Not qualifying for a bowl game would certainly be a failure of a season for Tulane. Luckily, Tulane should do much better than that.
Many fans consider a college football playoff berth the bar for success. But would a playoff berth in Coach Sumrall’s first season be a success even if Tulane is eliminated in the first round, or would Tulane have to win at least one playoff game? What would it take for Tulane to make the college football playoffs?
Under the new twelve-team format, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive an automatic bid. That means the conference champion from the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and the highest-ranked Group of Five Conference Champion.
So, for Tulane to get in, they would have to win the American Conference Championship and be ranked higher than the conference champions from the CUSA, MAC, MW, and SBC.
Tulane faces two Power-four programs: Kansas State in New Orleans in Week 2 and Oklahoma in Norman the following week. This makes for a more brutal out-of-conference schedule.
If Tulane drops one of those games, they could still get into the playoffs, but it would be tough to justify if they lose both.
So a playoff berth would mean that Tulane won their conference and likely went at least 1-1 against Oklahoma and Kansas State. If offered, most Tulane fans would be happy with that.
But what if Tulane gets embarrassed in the college football playoffs? What if Tulane performs like TCU did against Georgia just a couple years back, where the Frogs lost 65-7?
While that would sting, I still believe making the college football playoffs in Coach Sumrall’s first season in New Orleans would be a success.
On the other hand, what if Tulane wins the American Conference Championship but does not make the college football playoffs? Is the season still a success at that point?
Absolutely. Tulane has won the American Conference just once in the school’s history. Any time you win the conference, it’s a big deal. Would it be disappointing not to make the playoffs in the first season under the twelve-team format? Surely, but it would be unrealistic to set that as the standard in Coach Sumrall’s first year.
Last scenario: what if Tulane makes the conference championship but loses? While that would not make the season a failure, it would also not make it a success.
A conference championship is the new standard at Tulane.
The goal for this season should be to win the American Conference Championship for the second time in school history and then let the chips fall where they may with the College Football Playoffs. Anything after that is lagniappe.
