Why The College Football Playoffs Must Expand

The College Football Playoffs need to expand regardless of Cincinnati making the Playoffs this year.

Jack Edwards | Dec 17, 2021

In this story:

Cincinnati Bearcats

For the very first time in College Football Playoffs history, a Group of 5 school has been granted access into the 4 team Playoffs field. The Cincinnati Bearcats have seemingly disproved the notion that the Group of 5 could never make the Playoffs. In theory, that should mean that the College Football Playoffs format is perfect and fair to every single FBS team, and therefore should stay at four teams, right?

Wrong.

Cincinnati deserves all the credit in the world for their season to this point, dominating pretty much every team on their schedule en route to a 13-0 record. They firmly cemented themselves as an elite team, and it’s only right that they were put into the Playoffs field. However, an absurd number of things needed to happen outside of their 13-0 record in order for them to be in this position, which should speak volumes about why the Playoffs is not currently a perfect system.

The ACC fell off the face of the earth this season. Clemson was not among the cream of the crop like usual, and the champion of the conference, Pittsburgh, had 2 losses. An undefeated or 1-loss ACC champ likely takes Cincinnati’s #4 ranking, based on previous seasons.

Then, the Big 12 also had a 2-loss champion in Baylor. That two loss threshold is a death sentence for any Playoffs hopes, as no team with two losses has made the Playoffs up to this point.

Next, the Pac-12 had a three loss champion, marking the first time in College Football Playoffs history that three Power 5 champions had at least 2 losses to end the season. In short, this has not been your typical college football season. Mediocrity across most of the Power 5 is likely most of the reason why Cincinnati cracked the top 4.

Now, Cincinnati did have a top 5 win, on the road against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. There’s no doubt that that win was crucial for their strength of schedule argument when being considered for the Playoffs. However, after beating Notre Dame, Cincinnati had to hope and pray that the Irish could win the rest of their games, to keep their strength of schedule looking as strong as possible. A slip up or two by Notre Dame could’ve easily ended Cincinnati’s Playoffs hopes by no fault of their own.

Plus, sometimes a team is just really good and needs to be given credit. Here's an example:

Only @GeorgiaFootball and @GoBearcatsFB are in the top 10 in ppg and ppg allowed this season.

How will they fare in their CFP games? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/C7zC7mm9gv
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 14, 2021

When a person also thinks about how college football schedules are made, that makes it even harder for a Group of 5 school to get into the Playoffs. Teams generally agree to play against each other years in advance.

When a Group of 5 school schedules a team like the Irish, as the Bearcats did, they must hope that the team(s) they schedule are playing at a high level that year if they want any chance at the Playoffs. Whereas Power 5 teams will get in regardless of their out-of-conference schedule if they go undefeated. Guessing how good a team will be multiple years in advance is not easy.

Looking at all the things that needed to fall into place for Cincinnati on top of them going undefeated to crack the top 4, it seems likely that we won’t see a Group of 5 team make the four team College Football Playoffs again for quite some time.

Unfortunately, on top of all of that, it’s likely that if Cincinnati gets blown out by Alabama, that will be used as another argument to keep the Group of 5 out of the Playoffs, even though there are blowouts seemingly every single year in the Playoffs.

Talks of Playoffs expansion to six or even eight teams have been in the works for a while now, with the College Football Playoffs contract ending in 2025. The hope is that Cincinnati making the Playoffs under very extreme circumstances does not act as a scapegoat for the Playoffs not to expand.

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