Fiesta Bowl: How Does TCU Beat Michigan?
With the Big 12 Conference sending TCU to the College Football playoff to play Michigan, there are some big questions about how the Horned Frogs can pull off the upset.
The Sports Illustrated Sportsbook has made Michigan a 7.5 point favorite over TCU. Looking at that number and thinking about it, it sounded about right. Michigan has been a juggernaut this season by winning its 13 games by an average score of 40.1 to 13.4, for a margin of victory that's at 26.7 points.
How can TCU flip the table on the odds and win this game though? Here are four areas that the Horned Frogs must be better than many Las Vegas odds makers believed they'd be to come out victorious.
Here are three areas that can help TCU prove the odds makers wrong.
1) Special Teams must be excellent.
The TCU coaching staff needs a gimmick play, maybe just a special effort play, that directly leads to points. A fake field goal, a fake punt, an overload punt block that gets home and leads to a recovery in the end zone.
It could even be the punter having a tremendous day at pinning the Wolverines back inside their own 20 during the majority of the game. Whatever it may be, TCU needs to win the special teams battle decisively.
2) Can the Horned Frogs hit the big plays in the passing game?
Just about any college football fan knows that TCU head coach Sonny Dykes likes to throw the ball and that Max Duggan is one of the nation’s top signal callers. So does the Michigan coaching staff, though.
This is going to be a colossal matchup of wits that when looking back at the final score, could have been the biggest determining factor for which squad came out on top.
Can TCU add an additional wrinkle to the play calling and/or formations that gives the Michigan defensive staff fits?
Wolverines defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has overseen a unit that’s No. 3 in scoring defense, No. 3 in rushing defense, No. 22 in passing defense, and No. 3 in total defense. The Maize and Blue have been fantastic this season.
While good all-around, it’s also a fact that Michigan’s passing defense is its weakest link (not really weak, but one gets the point). That stated, Michigan gave up 349 yards passing to Ohio State and 366 yards passing to Purdue. Those were the last two games.
There have definitely been cracks in the Michigan passing defense. If TCU can hit a couple of 50-yard plays, or something similar coming from Duggan’s right arm, those heaves down the field could be the reason Michigan goes down in defeat today.
3) Bend but do not break.
Michigan has shown to have the best offensive line in the country. It helped allow running back Donovan Edwards to really show his talents during the past two games – 216 and 185 yards respectively – versus Ohio State and Purdue. That being the case, if Michigan was to somehow be forced into kicking field goals, TCU will have been given a chance in the fourth quarter to win this game.
The key, do not allow Edwards to be a viable option on third downs, i.e. TCU must play great run “D” on first and second down.
Remember, sophomore quarterback JJ McCarthy is one heck of an athlete and talented quarterback, but he’s not yet shown to be a consistent passer when under duress during obvious passing situations like third and long. That’s especially the case near the goal line.
If the Frogs can keep McCarthy and the Wolverines in situations where it’s obvious Michigan needs to pass in the red zone, TCU will have created an advantage that could have flipped the score upside down.
