Trench Battle: TCU vs Georgia
If one believes the odds makers, tonight's College Football Playoff National Championship will be about a two touchdown final score difference.
It’s the SEC and the Big 12. The SEC is always supposed to win that battle, right? Well, that’s a myth in general whenever the word “always” comes into play. Overall, most dismiss the Big 12 versus the SEC though. Should they?
How about just for this TCU matchup with Georgia?
Let’s start with a backdrop with where this game stands according to the point spread, the recruiting rankings, and the quarterbacks from both teams. Then, an area will be brought to attention that could actually be the final deciding factor: Which team comes up with big plays in the trenches wins the game.
The Sports Illustrated Sportsbook has Georgia as a 13-point favorite over TCU. It’s hard to argue if one looks at the recruiting analytics. Here are the last four classes based on the 247 Recruiting Rankings:
Georgia Bulldogs
2019: 2
2020: 1
2021: 3
2022: 3
TCU Horned Frogs
2019: 32
2020: 23
2021: 44
2022: 28
But there’s more to it than just basic recruiting information. Quarterback play has proven to be worth far more than what one prospect from 247 or any other network gives them a ranking for. Look at Georgia last season.
Quarterback Stetson Bennett was not even supposed to be starting according to many UGA fans. He led the Bulldogs to the 2021 National Title and even played better than Heisman Trophy winner and Alabama quarterback Bryce Young for many parts of that same game. Perhaps the tables turn this year, however.
Quarterback play is a big reason some believe TCU has a chance in this game. The signal caller for the Horned Frogs is Max Duggan. He’s about as clutch as any player in the country, and he’s helped TCU to win nine games by a margin of 10 points or less. That’s miraculous.
Whenever and whatever was needed, Duggan found a way.
Here are Duggan’s 2022 statistics: 3,546 yards, 63.7%, 32 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He’s also rushed for 461 yards and eight scores.
Even Duggan’s clutch play may not be enough, however. He does not block and tackle. To beat Georgia, it’s about a situation that cannot be completely explained with just numbers. It’s about the play in the trenches.
How many of TCU’s front seven defenders also find a way, much like Duggan, to make the special plays that keep a run to four yards instead of 50 with a shoestring tackle, or maybe strip a UGA running back that looks to be about ready to hit a seam and take off down the sideline?
Same with the offensive line but in reverse by opening a hole against a former four or five-star defensive line recruit for Georgia that’s looking forward to the NFL Draft?
That last questions goes right along with trying to find ways to block Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter and doing so without a double team. That’s quite difficult, to say the least, as some NFL scouts believe Carter will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Overall, TCU needs to dominate the “special plays” in the trenches category, if one will. It may honestly only be two or three plays for the entire game. Football has long since proven to be odd that way.
Dominate statistically, but not on the scoreboard. TCU can live with that, and even win the national title with that situation playing out. They are all but assuredly not going to win the overall number of plays in the trenches. Just too much talent for Georgia to accomplish that task, but it’s okay.
Again, basing this game on recruiting the sheer talent the Bulldogs possess, they are the better team. That does not automatically mean they will win.
For anyone watching the game, pay attention to the trenches, i.e. special plays that lead to any number of events like fourth down run stuffs, stripping the football, and creating havoc overall when it’s least expected. If the Horned Frogs do that, this game could very well come down to the end of the fourth quarter where either team has a chance to win.
Who knows, maybe the Big 12’s TCU squad finds a way to win another close matchup, this time over Georgia and the mighty SEC.
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