Latest CFB AP Poll Shows Importance of QB Experience
There are not many McKenzie Milton’s in college football history. Players that just dominate seemingly out of no place. Even Milton, however, did not become that electric player for the 2016 UCF Knights. He threw for 1,983 yards, 57.7%, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions as a freshman.
His transformation as a top-notch quarterback came with a year of experience during the magical 2017 campaign in which UCF went undefeated. His statistics tell the tale with 4,037 yards, 67.1%, 37 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a passer, plus 613 yards on the ground, averaging 5.8 per carry, and scoring an additional eight touchdowns.
His transformation from his first season as a starter to his second is similar to what’s happening now with quarterback play within the sport of college football, and specifically those ranked inside the Associated Press (AP) Poll top ten.
Look at the returning starting quarterbacks. Teams that with returning signal callers are more likely to be ranked inside the top 10, while teams that are now out of the top 10 are struggling with inexperienced signal callers at their respective programs.
UCF’s current situation is a similar example. It’s a team with a quarterback that does possess some experience at the position in John Rhys Plumlee, but the Knights showed they can bog down offensively with Plumlee behind center.
Plumlee played quarterback for Ole Miss in 2019 prior to being a wide receiver for the Rebels in 2020 and 2021. So he’s now learning a new scheme and players around him like many other Transfer Portal quarterbacks across the landscape of college football.
How does UCF or any other program get away from quarterback struggles? Coaches must recruit quarterbacks that are not only talented but also fit that program’s scheme. Then, be patient with development. There can still certainly be struggles, like Milton as a freshman, but that’s the proven method to reach success.
Getting to a place of offensive prosperity is not always easy though. Year 1 for a starting quarterback usually has many bumps along the road, as the following detailed information will display.
Let’s take a look at how many of the programs inside the top 10 of the AP Poll that are returning quarterbacks, as well as teams that dropped out of the top 10 poll, and compare the early returns on the 2022 seasons each is having.
#1 Georgia - Just have to love that Stetson Bennett keeps coming back for more despite his detractors. He’s getting better as well. Although a prior walk-on at the University of Georgia, Bennett is experienced and now has a National Championship ring. Also, he knows head coach Kirby Smart’s scheme and what he wants from the quarterback position.
In 2022, he’s been turned loose and the Bulldogs are actually throwing the football more than during prior seasons. Look for Bennett to surpass 3,000 passing yards for Georgia in 2022.
#2 Alabama - The opposite of how Bennett was recruited would be Bryce Young, rated the No. 1 player at the high school level by SI All-American and Sports Illustrated Directory of Recruiting John Garcia, Jr. Young had offers across the country coming out of famed Mater Dei High School in suburban Los Angeles.
The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner passed for over 5,000 yards in just over one full season of college football. He also did that mostly in the SEC West, without question the toughest division in college football.
Young is a quick-witted passer with uncanny accuracy, as well as being experienced after a dominant sophomore campaign. Seeing throws like the following one are why he’s a truly great player.
Built Differently 😤@_bryce_young @Jahmyr_Gibbs1 #RollTide pic.twitter.com/x9RQ9HS6Lk
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) September 11, 2022
Now with less wide receiver talent around him this season, it will be interesting to see what Young does for an encore. He is a rare talent, however, so do not underestimate this young man.
#3 Ohio State - Like Young, CJ Stroud came from just outside of Los Angeles prior to becoming a Buckeye. He also came in and played early by being the starter for tOSU as a redshirt freshman. He lit up the B10 last season with 4,435 yards and 44 touchdowns. Stroud also made a trip to New York to be present at the Heisman ceremony for his accomplishments.
He’s one of the rare players that was very good, like his friend from Southern California Young, after sitting the bench for just one season prior to starting at a blue-blood program. He led the Buckeyes to a really good 2021 season and they came up just short of reaching the 2021 College Football (CFB) Playoff, Stroud and the Buckeyes are in contention to make it to the CFB Playoff this season.
#4 Michigan - JJ McCarthy is playing out of this world right now in terms of taking care of the football and being accurate. He’s 15 out of 16 with 259 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s from one start and some mop-up duty in Game 1.
He waited his turn and beat out last year’s starter Cade McNamara by being a more explosive passer and runner. Still need to see him play against a truly top defense to judge how good McCarthy can be, but all signs lead to the former five-star recruit becoming one of the best quarterbacks in college football before long.
#5 Clemson - DJ Uiagalelei is finally starting to pick it up, or is it just experience making a difference? He was rated right there with Young as a top quarterback coming out of…you guessed it, the greater Los Angeles area three years ago.
He has a cannon for an arm and is starting to at least make some of the short and intermediate throws that he missed last season when he was quite honestly a subpar signal caller. Now with more experience, the quarterback that completed only 55.6% of his passes in 2021 has come out by completing 67.8% during his first two games against Georgia Tech and Furman. Clemson’s offense has a much better run-pass balance because of Uiagalelei’s passing improvement, too.
#6 Oklahoma - Dillon Gabriel came over from UCF after spending three seasons with the Knights. With the skill position talent that Oklahoma possesses, Gabriel is making a quick transition in Norman by way of throwing for 529 yards, 70.6%, five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s now working with a former coach as well.
It should be noted that he’s now playing for offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, the same coordinator he had at UCF during the 2019 season. That fact has helped to smooth the transition of Gabriel from UCF to Oklahoma quite well.
#7 Southern California - The transfer of former Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams to Southern California keeps the wide-open passing attack for Lincoln Riley rolling. He’s another bona fide elite recruit. In fact, like Young, he was also rated the No. 1 overall player by Garcia and SI All-American. He’s from the class of 2021 and Young comes from the class of 2020.
As dynamic as a runner as he is as a passer, Williams is a likely challenger to Young, Stroud, and any other Heisman contender this season. It’s also prudent to mention that from this list, he is the one true freshman that made an impact. From playing significant minutes in 10 games and playing in eight games as a starter, Williams threw for 1,912 yards, 21 touchdowns and four interceptions for the Sooners.
#8 Oklahoma State - Spencer Sanders has been the man behind center for the Cowboys since 2019 and getting better as he learned head coach Mike Gundy’s offensive scheme. Sanders is gaining more consistency in big moments; that’s probably his most valuable commodity.
For example, against Notre Dame in this past Fiesta Bowl, he threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns. He helped lead Oklahoma State back from a 28-7 deficit to win 37-35. That might be the best game that Sanders has ever played. Now a senior and a player that knows the playbook through and through, look for the Cowboys to be one of the nation’s best passing attacks behind Sanders’ right arm.
#9 Kentucky - Perhaps the most difficult quarterback to gauge because of the offense he’s operating and the talent around him, that would be Will Levis. There are not the same level of wide receivers at Kentucky as say Ohio State, Southern California, Clemson or Michigan, among others.
He’s still a big-armed athlete that transferred to Kentucky last season after not winning the job at Penn State. He won the job with the Wildcats and did fairly well. Levis did have some bumps in the road, as he was picked off 13 times in 2021. He’s now making some tough throws and the arm strength is better utilized with him being more comfortable with the players around him. Levis has 505 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions so far in 2022.
#10 Arkansas - KJ Jefferson is one of college football’s best dual-threat quarterbacks. A second-year starter for the Razorbacks, the 6-foot-3 and 242-pound Jefferson is beginning to place himself in the Heisman competition.
He has 385 yards and four touchdowns through the air, completing 76.6% of his passes. Jefferson also rushed for 123 yards and two more touchdowns this season. Considering he did that against a quality defense in Cincinnati and another SEC team in South Carolina, Jefferson has become one of the SEC’s best players at the very least. He did not start out that way, however.
Jefferson threw a combined 72 passes and just three touchdowns from the 2019 and 2020 seasons. It took time for him to earn his way into the starting lineup for Arkansas.
AP Top 10 Notes
Examining the players from the above list, there are some interesting statistics about the importance of quarterback experience.
Seven of the current AP Poll top ten teams have their returning starting quarterback. Plus, Williams was the starter at Oklahoma last season and Gabriel was the starter at UCF. McCarthy is the anomaly, and he just did beat out his competitor who returned from Michigan’s 2021 Playoff team.
It’s easy to see how much different an offensive two-minute drill operates at say Georgia or Oklahoma State with quarterbacks that have been in the program for four years as compared to many other schools around college football that are starting new signal callers. To the point about the two-minute drill, ask Texas.
Young was clutch in the final moments so that the Crimson Tide could steal a 20-19 victory over the Longhorns. Texas was the better team for much of the day, but Young made unique plays at critical moments for Alabama to win.
Experience is the primary factor here, but it’s not alone. Talent still matters.
The only teams that do not have their returning quarterback from the above list – Michigan, Oklahoma and Southern California – each have a special ingredient at the signal caller position as well.
Michigan now has McCarthy taking the starting job, and he’s a truly elite talent. Some believed he should have been starting as a freshman for the Wolverines. Caleb Williams is an elite athlete with the passing talent to beat teams running or throwing. Finally, Gabriel is quite familiar with the offense because of his connection with Lebby and he’s certainly a talented passer himself.
Speaking of recruiting, seven of the 10 above quarterbacks were very highly recruited, with Levis on the cusp of being a big-time recruit, Gabriel having FBS offers, and Bennett being the lone walk-on from the list. When looking outside the top 10, experience is showing itself there, too.
No. 5 Texas A&M lost to Appalachian State and fifth-year senior quarterback Chase Brice 17-14, and No. 8 Notre Dame lost to Marshall and fifth-year senior Henry Colombi 26-21. The previously top 10 ranked teams were both breaking in new quarterbacks.
Haynes King only passed for 97 yards against Appalachian State. He’s definitely not ready for the big-time, and A&M now has to host Miami and experienced quarterback Tyler Van Dyke on Sep. 17. Van Dyke is projected to go in the first or second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Good luck to Jimbo Fisher and his squad considering the quarterback disparity in that game.
After the way quarterback Tyler Buchner played against Marshall, it's hard to imagine him being a threat for the Fighting Irish for at least the rest of the 2022 season regardless of his injury status (shoulder injury). Notre Dame’s offense is atrocious, and Buchner is a primary culprit among many in South Bend.
That same story can be told by Baylor, the former No. 9 team, prior to losing on the road to a good BYU team with an experienced quarterback in Jaren Hall.
The Cougars won 26-20 over the Bears with Hall throwing for 283 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Baylor’s starting quarterback, Blake Shapen, went 18 of 28 for 137 yards and one touchdown.
He’s talented, but let’s see what Shapen becomes towards the end of the 2022 season and then again in 2023. He is only in his second season of college football and has very little experience in live action.
College football can be difficult with a returning quarterback, but it’s harder when the player behind center is not a returning player or at least a unique talent like Williams at Southern California.
So, while Plumlee is not exactly lighting the world on fire with UCF, and many other first-year starters are not playing great, that’s par for the course. Time and patience is needed before success will be had, more often than not.
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