Will an AAC Team Reach the College Football Playoffs?
The selection process for the College Football Playoff is tough to decipher, especially with there being a revolving door of committee members. One thing that is for certain, though, is it is extremely tough for any Group of Five conference member to be placed in the top four—even after an undefeated season.
That means that teams from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) could have a difficult time making it. Here's why.
Last year we found out that it is not impossible. Cincinnati was given a well deserved Playoff berth, and laid the groundwork for what needs to happen in order for a Group of Five team to follow suit.
The main item on Cincinnati’s 2021 resume that helped them take the leap into the Playoff was their road win in South Bend vs Notre Dame. The win earned them talking points in the eyes of the national media, as well as the committee. Beating a big name program with a high ranking (the Fighting Irish were ranked #9 at the time of the loss) is very important to AAC teams looking to make the playoff.
Another factor in the Bearcats being selected was the fact that the Power Five beat up on itself all year. It was just the second time in the Playoff era that zero Power Five teams went undefeated, and on top of that, only four Power Five teams had one loss (one of those teams being Notre Dame).
It will probably take similar chaos in 2022 for an AAC team to be selected to the Playoff field. This is unfortunate for Group of Five conferences because it means that their chances of making the four team field almost solely rely on factors out of their control.
There are four teams in the conference this year that have somewhat of a realistic chance to go undefeated. Those would be Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and SMU. In order to determine whether any of these teams have any chance at the Playoff though, we will have to take a deeper look at each team’s schedule, as well as whether or not they have a solid chance at running the table.
The Bearcats are the only team here that may not need to have an elite win in 2022 to secure a playoff win, since they made the Playoff last year (and held their own vs Alabama). That depends on whether or not the committee uses information from previous years. Year in and year out, the committee at least claims that they do not use information from previous years, but they are humans, and are subject to the same sorts of biases as anyone else.
Let us assume the committee will solely rank teams based on what happens in 2022. In that case, it will still be an uphill battle for the Bearcats to make the Playoff again. The three hardest teams on the docket for them, in no particular order, are Arkansas, UCF, and SMU. Their case can be strengthened a little when you factor in that all three of these are road games.
Arkansas is arguably the toughest out-of-conference opponent that any of the four potential AAC candidates will face, as they are the only non-conference opponent that finished 2021 ranked. ESPN’s preseason FPI ranking has the Razorbacks ranked at 26th. A Bearcats win in that game would probably be their biggest resume-builder in the eyes of the committee.
Of course that all depends on Arkansas’ performance for the rest of the season, which is tough to predict. Cincinnati will need to root for them to finish ranked at the end of the year. Last year the Razorbacks had two ranked SEC wins, and took Alabama and Ole Miss down to the wire. They are projected to finish somewhere between the 5-7 range in the SEC standings next year.
The Bearcats also face Indiana, but although Indiana is a Power Five school, a Bearcats win probably would not mean much for their resume. Indiana went 2-10 in 2021 and has a lot of work to do in order to be competitive next season.
UCF will face Cincinnati and SMU in AAC play, and the most notable out-of-conference opponent for them looks like it will be Louisville. All three of these games are at home, which bodes well for UCF in terms of winning those games, but hurts their resume a bit. Cincinnati will probably be the biggest test and resume-booster for the Knights.
FPI has Cincinnati ranked at 27, Louisville at 36, and SMU at 52. The Knights will obviously need to take care of business in these games, and then hope that these teams outperform their preseason projections.
Houston has the weakest schedule of the four. ESPN has their strength of schedule ranked 101st in the country entering 2022. That makes Houston the biggest longshot Playoff hopeful of the four teams, especially coupled with the fact that Houston might be the least likely of the four to go undefeated.
The Cougars will face the Texas Tech Red Raiders on the road, a team that crushed them last year. If Houston can get over that hurdle, the only other somewhat notable opponent on their schedule is their road game at SMU. The third-best opponent they will face is the UTSA Roadrunners, a team that actually had a very impressive 2021 season, but will not help a Playoff resume and are likely to take a step back in 2022.
Lastly, SMU cannot be counted out. They will face two Power Five teams in consecutive weeks by traveling to Maryland and hosting TCU. Just like the other potential AAC candidates, SMU will need to hope for those teams to play better than their expectations. The Mustangs will travel to Orlando to tussle with UCF, and will face Cincinnati at home, and arguably has the toughest overall schedule of the four teams (FPI agrees).
All the dominos fell into place for Cincinnati to make the Playoff last year, on top of them going undefeated. While it may seem unfair, the same dominos will have to fall again next year if the AAC wants to sneak back into the four-team field. Statistically, it seems unlikely that lightning would strike twice for the AAC, but a path does exist, and as long as one does, there is always hope.
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