Keys to Victory, UCF at SMU

For the UCF to be successful against SMU, there will need to be several different players and position groups that step up their play.

Brian Smith | Nov 11, 2021

ORLANDO - The game versus SMU will hold many answers to questions about UCF’s toughness, resilience, and ability to overcome adversity. With that in mind, there’s an overall game flow that UCF needs to create by combining and winning four categories.

Like with most football games, this battle begins in the trenches. Yes, SMU can certainly throw the football, and UCF quarterback Mikey Keene really improved over the course of the past couple of weeks, but the trenches will be the biggest factor this Saturday. That’s where the discussion starts for UCF’s keys to victory.

Offensive Line Must Produce Running Lanes

SMU’s rushing defense is solid overall, and really good of late. With that stated, which SMU defense shows up is important, as the following statistics will prove.

SMU allowed just a combined 117 yards two Houston and Memphis during the past two weeks. That’s tremendous. Against TCU it allowed 194 yards on the ground, and Tulane ran for 170 yards. That two-game total equates to 364 yards rushing allowed by SMU.

Which SMU defense shows up versus an UCF offensive line that’s blocking for talented players like Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson?

The last two weeks saw the Knights rush for 199 yards versus Temple and then just 48 versus Tulane. The Green Wave played very aggressive and went all-out to stop the run. Will the Mustangs take the same approach?

If the Knights are below 150 yards rushing, it will be hard to keep SMU’s vaunted passing attack with quarterback Tanner Mordecai off the field. Therefore, the Knights must run the football consistently throughout the game. That will also help with the next category.

Third Down Conversions Must Improve

The one area that UCF struggled mightily throughout the 2021 season would be third down conversions, with a season-long average of just 39.3%, ranking the Knights No. 75 in the country.

The last two weeks continued to be a struggle with UCF converting the same 39.3% (that’s random) of its third down attempts. That will not be good enough against SMU.

UCF needs to be just a little bit better. Perhaps converting eight of 17, or maybe nine of 20 would do enough to keep the chains moving and allow UCF’s defense to rest while the SMU offense stands on the sidelines.

SMU’s third down defense plays solid on third downs, allowing 50 of 134 third downs to be converted this season. Much like with the battle of wills along the trenches, third downs will likely be a battle of wills. Then there’s the possible big-play factor coming back into the lineup for the Knights.

Jaylon Robinson’s Return

Even if Jaylon Robinson just plays 30 snaps, he changes the coverages for SMU and opens up opportunities for UCF’s other skill position players. This is straight-forward; The Mustangs will struggle to figure out which wide receivers to double when Robinson comes into the game because Ryan O’Keefe is also a dynamic playmaker. Then there’s Brandon Johnson who leads the UCF wide receiver core with nine touchdown receptions.

Who gets doubled, O'Keefe or Robinson? / UCF Athletics

Perhaps the most important factor with Robinson’s return is how it possibly impacts the rushing attack. If SMU must pull one defender away from the box, that leaves UCF with more opportunities to run the football.

Keep an eye on how SMU plays defense while Robinson lines up at receiver. He will literally change how the game is played.

Role Players Must Step Up

This category does not pertain to any one player. An overall group effort will be needed, as all three phases must contribute -- offense, defense and special teams -- for the Knights to be successful against the Mustangs.

That can be a key block during a punt return, a player such as Anthony Montalvo holding his gap while linebacker Tatum Bethune runs to the ball carrier and makes a key tackle, or any other role player on the roster being Johnny on the spot and recovering a fumble.

To win on the road against a quality opponent such as SMU, there needs to be good play for all of UCF’s players, not just the stars that are so often discussed.

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