Game Analysis and Score Prediction: Tulane at UCF

Time to analyze and predict the final score for Tulane at UCF, with injury news a major part of the story for the Green Wave.

Brian Smith | Nov 5, 2021

ORLANDO - This should be a game that UCF wins, but there is one particular category that makes this contest difficult to project. That would be the health of Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt.

Regardless of what anyone associated with Tulane Athletics states heading into Saturday’s game, there’s strong history that shows college football writers and fans should be at least leery of so-called injury news regarding a college quarterback.

Basically, just because Pratt may or may not be provided the opportunity to play as of Friday morning when this article was published, means little for what will happen at 4 p.m. EST at the Bounce House on Saturday. One, coaches lie about injuries. Check that, they constantly lie about injuries. It’s a rite of passage with many college coaches, so keep that in mind. The, of course, Pratt’s injury status could change. Nobody knows.

With that said, the following analysis will be solely based on Pratt not playing, as he was missing practice while in concussion protocol earlier this week. Here’s how the Tulane at UCF matchup breaks down with Pratt not in the lineup.

Can Tulane Quarterback Kai Horton Show Vast Improvement?

If Kai Horton does not elevate his game substantially as compared to his poor first start as Tulane's quarterback against Cincinnati, this may not be much of a contest. The following statistics represent what Horton did as a passer and runner versus the Bearcats last Saturday:

7/16 for 79 yards and two interceptions, no touchdowns, and rushed eight times that resulted in losing 16 yards.

Needless to say, Horton would like to forget his last start. The Tulane coaching staff probably would like to do the same.

At absolute bare minimum, Horton needs to pass for 150 yards and not turn the football over against a UCF pass defense that’s come on strong during the past two games. That’s going to be a tall order, and also why Tulane will look to protect Horton by running the football.

UCF Rushing Defense Will be Challenged

With an inexperienced signal caller making his second college start, Tulane will rely on the legs of two very good running backs in Tyjae Spears and Cameron Carroll. It’s a unique combination of Spears being a slasher that can make defenders miss, while Carroll provides a power running back that punishes defenders.

During the past two games, the combination of Spears and Carroll combined for 335 yards and two touchdowns. Keep in mind, despite Horton starting versus a talented Cincinnati defense last Saturday and the Bearcats being prepared to stop the run, Tulane will run for 187 yards as a team. Spears and Carroll accounted for 170 of those rushing yards.

With a very talented offensive line that’s well coached and disciplined, look for Spears and Carroll to combine for at least 140 rushing yards, and at least one touchdown. The question will still be more about red zone rushing defense as Horton probably will not be very good at passing the football in a constricted area.

UCF Defensive Ends Stay Hot

Just because Horton will be handing off does not mean he will face minimal pass rushing pressure. With defensive end Tre’mon Morris-Brash being the third defensive end to consistently apply quarterback pressure during the past two games, expect the Knights to bring down Horton two times or more. It will be a good matchup with Tulane’s offensive line, as the Green Wave allowed 21 sacks thus far, but Horton will probably only pass when needed, as well as attempt to execute quick passes with very little opportunity to rush the quarterback, at least during the early portion of the contest.

Landon Woodson, UCF — Tre'mon Morris-Brash is now a part of a three-headed monster for the Knights at defensive end / UCF Athletics

Once UCF begins to stuff the run at least once in a while, forcing more difficult down and distance situations, that’s when the Knights will likely reach Horton and sack him. If UCF establishes a lead and Horton must pass consistently, he could go down five or more times. The Knights recorded 10 sacks during the past two games.

The only question here, will it be Big Kat Bryant, Josh Celiscar or Morris-Brash that leads UCF’s defensive ends in sacks this week? Further, do not discount the linebackers and defensive tackles from sacking Horton.

More Isaiah Bowser, Please

Moving to offense, with a Tulane rushing defense that allows 185.0 yards rushing per game, ranking it No. 103 from 130 FBS teams, there’s a good chance the Green Wave defense will see running back Isaiah Bowser all game long. This game represents a chance for Bowser to run for 200 yards, assuming he breaks a long run for the first time this season.

At the very least, Bowser should rush for 125 yards and a score. He’s too big, too athletic, and too smart of a runner not to gash a bad Tulane defense. Then the rabbit will come into the game as well.

Johnny Richardson provides a different gear that’s hard to handle. Look for Richardson’s longest carry of the year to come against a Tulane defense that commonly sees defenders miss their run-gap responsibilities. At some point during the game, Richardson will rip off a long run due to good blocking and the Tulane defense failing to hold their assignments.

Keene Over the Top

This will not likely be a game that Keene needs to continuously air it out. Even so, he could pass for two or three touchdowns without going over 20 passes, much like he threw five touchdowns versus Temple while completing 15 of his 21 passing attempts. It’s not the quantity that matters here, it’s the big-play possibilities that matter, especially down the field.

Whether it will be play-action shots to Ryan O’Keefe or hitting crossing routes to Brandon Johnson, there will be opportunities to connect with passes that travel 20 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Tulane simply must bring more defenders into the box than they would like to slow down Bowser’s ability to run the football, and that’s going to cost the Green Wave by no later than the late portion of the second quarter. Keene may not complete more than 15 passes, just like last Saturday. It will not matter. Keene will throw for more than 200 yards because of big plays.

Prediction

This will be a game where UCF takes control and pulls away by the middle of the third quarter. UCF’s defense will give Horton fits, and that’s also going to mitigate scoring chances once Tulane reaches the red zone.

Further, UCF’s balanced offensive attack will be capable of consistently running or passing against a really bad Tulane defense. There’s no reason to believe that’s going to suddenly change after the Green Wave played eight games. The Knights will score early and often, and that will continue through the fourth quarter.

UCF 49 Tulane 17

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