UCF Offensive Trends, Thoughts on Injuries, Heading into the War on I-4

A look at UCF’s offense, along with the injury situation, and how they will both impact this year’s War on I-4 with USF.

Brian Smith | Nov 25, 2021

ORLANDO - The Knights are a team that can put up points when they are truly playing well. The numbers below bare that out. Further, this is a team that’s been bogged down at times, like the Tulane game.

Which UCF offense shows up during the War on I-4?

Here’s a statistical perspective about the UCF offense, some thoughts about a particular running back and his ankle injury, and the difficult situation that USF’s defense will be placed in on Friday.

UCF Team Offensive Trends During Last Four Games

Points Scored: at Temple (49), Tulane (14), SMU (28), Connecticut (49).

Rushing Yards: Temple (199), Tulane (48), SMU (124), Connecticut (280).

Passing Yards: Temple (229), Tulane (229), SMU (209), Connecticut (257).

Turnovers Committed: Temple (2), Tulane (1), SMU (1), Connecticut (1).

Sans the game versus Tulane, UCF’s offense trends upwards. The Knights average 35 points per contest even with the poor offensive performance against Tulane. Further, UCF’s skill position playmakers are expanding back to normalcy, and there’s a chance for a key addition to the running back rotation.

Rushing Attack, Injury Note

With Johnny Richardson and Mark Antony-Richards playing more minutes due to Isaiah Bowser’s injury, the running back position sits at three players that produced touchdowns and significant carries during the four-game stretch. The rushing attack will go up against a USF defense that struggles to stop the run, giving up 210.4 yards on the ground per game.

Everyone will know what Bowser will do once he’s on the field. It will be obvious during warmups if he’s a ‘go’ or not. Ankle injuries are touchy, and he may or may not be healthy enough to tote the football against USF, no matter what he might say during the time leading up to the actual game. To that end, UCF will be in good hands.

Regardless of whether Bowser plays against South Florida and he’s the lead runner, sees just five carries, or does not play at all, keep in mind that only Tulane held the Knights below 100 yards rushing, with the aforementioned Richardson and Antony-Richards playing well. Further, USF’s four-game rushing defensive totals saw it allow big numbers to its opponents.

The Bulls’ rushing defense through the last four games: At East Carolina (251), Houston (261), Cincinnati (202), at Tulane (190). To say that UCF will take advantage is an understatement.

The UCF passing game is one that’s more open to interpretation, howe.

UCF Passing Game Back to Full Speed?

The passing game also trends in a positive direction with Mikey Keene throwing just one interception, versus Temple, during those last four games. Keene also pushes the football down the field more than he did during the first half of the season, and that’s a good sign for the USF game and the bowl game. He’s also now throwing to a fantastic receiver that has been missing from the lineup.

Mikey Keene is steadily progressing during the last four games, throwing 10 touchdowns and only one interception / UCF Athletics - Godin

With Jaylon Robinson now back in the UCF lineup, Keene’s options grow significantly. Additionally, there’s little doubt that UCF Head Coach Gus Malzahn will want the football in Robinson’s hands more to create more yards after the catch for the Knights’ offense. That point also brings up the choices for the USF defensive coaching staff.

Robinson’s presence places the USF defense in a position of choosing whether to defend the run or the pass because the Knights rushing attack will not be slowed down if the Bulls double cover Robinson, or perhaps his teammate and fellow Texas native. There simply will not be enough defenders in the box either way if USF uses double coverage.

With Jaylon back in the lineup, that’s also less pressure on Ryan O’Keefe to make plays. Then again, he did catch nine passes for 56 yards during last week’s 49-17 victory over Connecticut. Maybe it is O’Keefe that USF doubles?

Many of O’Keefe’s catches stem from the screen game. Like with Robinson, UCF simply wants to place the football in his hands and allow him to create. This will work even better with Robinson in the lineup more consistently, as heading into Friday’s War on I-4 game, he’s probably as close to full strength as he’s going to be for the rest of this season and will play more snaps than last week.

Nobody should forget about touchdowns leader Brandon Johnson either. The transfer from Tennessee has been a steady playmaker at the wide receiver position, hauling in 10 touchdowns on the season. The talented receiver scored a touchdown in nine of 11 games this season. He’s going to be single covered, and that could lead to some big plays versus the Bulls.

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